Vanguard California Intermediate Term Fund Market Value
| VCADX Fund | USD 11.35 0.01 0.09% |
| Symbol | Vanguard |
Vanguard California 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Vanguard California's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Vanguard California.
| 12/02/2024 |
| 01/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Vanguard California on December 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Vanguard California Intermediate Term or generate 0.0% return on investment in Vanguard California over 30 days. Vanguard California is related to or competes with Vanguard California, Vanguard California, Vanguard Limited, Vanguard California, and Vanguard Short-term. The fund invests primarily in high-quality municipal bonds issued by California state and local governments, as well as ... More
Vanguard California Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Vanguard California's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Vanguard California Intermediate Term upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.13) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.23 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.35) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.2646 |
Vanguard California Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Vanguard California's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Vanguard California's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Vanguard California historical prices to predict the future Vanguard California's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.09) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.68) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard California's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard California Backtested Returns
Vanguard California owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.12, which indicates the fund had a -0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Vanguard California Intermediate Term exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Vanguard California's Variance of 0.0479, risk adjusted performance of (0.09), and Coefficient Of Variation of (1,286) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.0397, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Vanguard California's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Vanguard California is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.21 |
Weak reverse predictability
Vanguard California Intermediate Term has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Vanguard California time series from 2nd of December 2024 to 17th of December 2024 and 17th of December 2024 to 1st of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Vanguard California price movement. The serial correlation of -0.21 indicates that over 21.0% of current Vanguard California price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.21 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.39 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Vanguard California lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Vanguard California mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Vanguard California's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Vanguard California returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Vanguard California has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Vanguard California regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Vanguard California mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Vanguard California mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Vanguard California mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Vanguard California Lagged Returns
When evaluating Vanguard California's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Vanguard California mutual fund have on its future price. Vanguard California autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Vanguard California autocorrelation shows the relationship between Vanguard California mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Vanguard California Intermediate Term.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund
Vanguard California financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard California security.
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