Trimegah Karya (Indonesia) Market Value
| UVCR Stock | 66.00 1.00 1.54% |
| Symbol | Trimegah |
Trimegah Karya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Trimegah Karya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Trimegah Karya.
| 06/03/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Trimegah Karya on June 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Trimegah Karya Pratama or generate 0.0% return on investment in Trimegah Karya over 180 days. Trimegah Karya is related to or competes with Smartfren Telecom, Ashmore Asset, Tera Data, Trinitan Metals, Lion Metal, Garuda Metalindo, and Weha Transportasi. More
Trimegah Karya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Trimegah Karya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Trimegah Karya Pratama upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 26.03 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.29) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.08 |
Trimegah Karya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Trimegah Karya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Trimegah Karya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Trimegah Karya historical prices to predict the future Trimegah Karya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.72) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.19 |
Trimegah Karya Pratama Backtested Returns
Trimegah Karya Pratama owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0523, which indicates the firm had a -0.0523% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Trimegah Karya Pratama exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Trimegah Karya's Coefficient Of Variation of (1,966), risk adjusted performance of (0.03), and Variance of 10.51 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.0548, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Trimegah Karya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Trimegah Karya is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Trimegah Karya Pratama has a negative expected return of -0.17%. Please make sure to validate Trimegah Karya's maximum drawdown, potential upside, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and value at risk , to decide if Trimegah Karya Pratama performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.04 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Trimegah Karya Pratama has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Trimegah Karya time series from 3rd of June 2024 to 1st of September 2024 and 1st of September 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Trimegah Karya Pratama price movement. The serial correlation of -0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Trimegah Karya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.13 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 14.06 |
Trimegah Karya Pratama lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Trimegah Karya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Trimegah Karya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Trimegah Karya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Trimegah Karya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Trimegah Karya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Trimegah Karya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Trimegah Karya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Trimegah Karya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Trimegah Karya Lagged Returns
When evaluating Trimegah Karya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Trimegah Karya stock have on its future price. Trimegah Karya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Trimegah Karya autocorrelation shows the relationship between Trimegah Karya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Trimegah Karya Pratama.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Trimegah Karya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Trimegah Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Trimegah with respect to the benefits of owning Trimegah Karya security.