Cenovus' market value is the price at which a share of Cenovus trades on an exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Cenovus Energy 425 investors about the bond's future performance. With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Cenovus Energy 425 and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Cenovus over a given investment horizon. Check out Cenovus Correlation, Cenovus Volatility and Cenovus Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Cenovus.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Cenovus' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Cenovus is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Cenovus' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Cenovus 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Cenovus' bond what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Cenovus.
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Cenovus' bond current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Cenovus Energy 425 upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Cenovus' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Cenovus' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Cenovus historical prices to predict the future Cenovus' volatility.
Cenovus Energy 425 secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0451, which signifies that the bond had a -0.0451% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Cenovus Energy 425 exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Cenovus' Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), standard deviation of 1.12, and Mean Deviation of 0.5033 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The bond shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0385, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Cenovus' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Cenovus is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation
-0.22
Weak reverse predictability
Cenovus Energy 425 has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Cenovus time series from 8th of November 2024 to 8th of December 2024 and 8th of December 2024 to 7th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Cenovus Energy 425 price movement. The serial correlation of -0.22 indicates that over 22.0% of current Cenovus price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient
-0.22
Spearman Rank Test
-0.62
Residual Average
0.0
Price Variance
1.52
Cenovus Energy 425 lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Cenovus bond's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Cenovus' bond expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Cenovus returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Cenovus has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the bond is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values
Timeline
Cenovus regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Cenovus bond is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Cenovus bond is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Cenovus bond over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices
Timeline
Cenovus Lagged Returns
When evaluating Cenovus' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Cenovus bond have on its future price. Cenovus autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Cenovus autocorrelation shows the relationship between Cenovus bond current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Cenovus Energy 425.
Regressed Prices
Timeline
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.
Cenovus financial ratios help investors to determine whether Cenovus Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Cenovus with respect to the benefits of owning Cenovus security.