Ardagh Packaging Finance Market Value
| 03969AAR1 | 76.00 19.75 35.11% |
| Symbol | Ardagh |
Ardagh 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ardagh's bond what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ardagh.
| 12/20/2023 |
| 12/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ardagh on December 20, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ardagh Packaging Finance or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ardagh over 360 days. Ardagh is related to or competes with Gap,, Southwest Airlines, Sea, Grocery Outlet, Alaska Air, Asbury Automotive, and American Airlines. More
Ardagh Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ardagh's bond current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ardagh Packaging Finance upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.35 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0861 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 33.81 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.20) | |||
| Potential Upside | 9.49 |
Ardagh Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ardagh's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ardagh's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ardagh historical prices to predict the future Ardagh's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0829 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6959 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.123 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.79) |
Ardagh Packaging Finance Backtested Returns
Ardagh appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Ardagh Packaging Finance secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0704, which signifies that the bond had a 0.0704% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Ardagh Packaging Finance, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please makes use of Ardagh's risk adjusted performance of 0.0829, and Mean Deviation of 3.05 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. The bond shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.79, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Ardagh are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Ardagh is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.12 |
Insignificant reverse predictability
Ardagh Packaging Finance has insignificant reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ardagh time series from 20th of December 2023 to 17th of June 2024 and 17th of June 2024 to 14th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ardagh Packaging Finance price movement. The serial correlation of -0.12 indicates that less than 12.0% of current Ardagh price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.12 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.23 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 47.49 |
Ardagh Packaging Finance lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ardagh bond's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ardagh's bond expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ardagh returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ardagh has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the bond is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ardagh regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ardagh bond is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ardagh bond is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ardagh bond over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ardagh Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ardagh's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ardagh bond have on its future price. Ardagh autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ardagh autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ardagh bond current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ardagh Packaging Finance.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ardagh Bond
Ardagh financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ardagh Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ardagh with respect to the benefits of owning Ardagh security.