Union Chemicals (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| UCARN0000 | 696.25 4.50 0.64% |
| Symbol | Union |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Union Chemicals' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Union Chemicals is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Union Chemicals' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Union Chemicals 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Union Chemicals' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Union Chemicals.
| 11/19/2023 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Union Chemicals on November 19, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Union Chemicals Lanka or generate 0.0% return on investment in Union Chemicals over 390 days. More
Union Chemicals Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Union Chemicals' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Union Chemicals Lanka upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.01 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.65) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.36 |
Union Chemicals Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Union Chemicals' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Union Chemicals' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Union Chemicals historical prices to predict the future Union Chemicals' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0319 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0397 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2947 |
Union Chemicals Lanka Backtested Returns
Union Chemicals appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Union Chemicals Lanka owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.16, which indicates the firm had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Union Chemicals Lanka, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please review Union Chemicals' Semi Deviation of 1.42, coefficient of variation of 2841.16, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0319 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Union Chemicals holds a performance score of 12. The entity has a beta of 0.21, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Union Chemicals' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Union Chemicals is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Union Chemicals' semi variance, and the relationship between the treynor ratio and daily balance of power , to make a quick decision on whether Union Chemicals' existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.22 |
Weak reverse predictability
Union Chemicals Lanka has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Union Chemicals time series from 19th of November 2023 to 1st of June 2024 and 1st of June 2024 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Union Chemicals Lanka price movement. The serial correlation of -0.22 indicates that over 22.0% of current Union Chemicals price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.22 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.43 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 739.98 |
Union Chemicals Lanka lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Union Chemicals stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Union Chemicals' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Union Chemicals returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Union Chemicals has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Union Chemicals regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Union Chemicals stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Union Chemicals stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Union Chemicals stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Union Chemicals Lagged Returns
When evaluating Union Chemicals' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Union Chemicals stock have on its future price. Union Chemicals autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Union Chemicals autocorrelation shows the relationship between Union Chemicals stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Union Chemicals Lanka.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Union Chemicals financial ratios help investors to determine whether Union Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Union with respect to the benefits of owning Union Chemicals security.