United Bank (Pakistan) Market Value
| UBL Stock | 357.55 9.75 2.65% |
| Symbol | United |
United Bank 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to United Bank's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of United Bank.
| 11/11/2024 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in United Bank on November 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding United Bank or generate 0.0% return on investment in United Bank over 30 days. United Bank is related to or competes with Oil, Pakistan State, Pakistan Petroleum, Fauji Fertilizer, Habib Bank, Mari Petroleum, and MCB Bank. More
United Bank Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure United Bank's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess United Bank upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.39 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.2658 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.17 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.84) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.93 |
United Bank Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for United Bank's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as United Bank's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use United Bank historical prices to predict the future United Bank's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.25 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2994 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.3284 |
United Bank Backtested Returns
United Bank appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. United Bank owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.31, which indicates the firm had a 0.31% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting United Bank's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.54% is justified by implied risk. Please review United Bank's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.25, standard deviation of 1.72, and Downside Deviation of 1.39 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, United Bank holds a performance score of 24. The entity has a beta of 0.0, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. the returns on MARKET and United Bank are completely uncorrelated. Please check United Bank's downside variance, kurtosis, and the relationship between the value at risk and expected short fall , to make a quick decision on whether United Bank's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
United Bank has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between United Bank time series from 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024 and 26th of November 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of United Bank price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current United Bank price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.71 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 140.42 |
United Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is United Bank stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting United Bank's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of United Bank returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that United Bank has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
United Bank regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If United Bank stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if United Bank stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in United Bank stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
United Bank Lagged Returns
When evaluating United Bank's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of United Bank stock have on its future price. United Bank autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, United Bank autocorrelation shows the relationship between United Bank stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in United Bank.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with United Bank
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if United Bank position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in United Bank will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with United Stock
Moving against United Stock
The ability to find closely correlated positions to United Bank could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace United Bank when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back United Bank - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling United Bank to buy it.
The correlation of United Bank is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as United Bank moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if United Bank moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for United Bank can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for United Stock Analysis
When running United Bank's price analysis, check to measure United Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy United Bank is operating at the current time. Most of United Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of United Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move United Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of United Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.