Ternium SA (Mexico) Market Value
| TX Stock | MXN 595.00 11.00 1.88% |
| Symbol | Ternium |
Ternium SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ternium SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ternium SA.
| 10/26/2024 |
| 12/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ternium SA on October 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ternium SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ternium SA over 60 days. Ternium SA is related to or competes with Steel Dynamics, Gerdau SA, United States, Grupo Simec, Industrias, and Companhia Siderrgica. Ternium S.A., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and processes various steel products in Mexico, Argentina, Paraguay... More
Ternium SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ternium SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ternium SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.25 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.79 |
Ternium SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ternium SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ternium SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ternium SA historical prices to predict the future Ternium SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.17) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.36) |
Ternium SA Backtested Returns
Ternium SA owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.13, which indicates the firm had a -0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ternium SA exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Ternium SA's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02), coefficient of variation of (2,604), and Variance of 3.83 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.24, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ternium SA's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ternium SA is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Ternium SA has a negative expected return of -0.24%. Please make sure to validate Ternium SA's treynor ratio, daily balance of power, as well as the relationship between the Daily Balance Of Power and period momentum indicator , to decide if Ternium SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.24 |
Weak reverse predictability
Ternium SA has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ternium SA time series from 26th of October 2024 to 25th of November 2024 and 25th of November 2024 to 25th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ternium SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.24 indicates that over 24.0% of current Ternium SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.24 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.31 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1139.64 |
Ternium SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ternium SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ternium SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ternium SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ternium SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ternium SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ternium SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ternium SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ternium SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ternium SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ternium SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ternium SA stock have on its future price. Ternium SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ternium SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ternium SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ternium SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Ternium Stock Analysis
When running Ternium SA's price analysis, check to measure Ternium SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Ternium SA is operating at the current time. Most of Ternium SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Ternium SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Ternium SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Ternium SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.