Train Alliance (Sweden) Market Value
| TRAIN-B Stock | SEK 18.60 0.10 0.53% |
| Symbol | Train |
Train Alliance 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Train Alliance's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Train Alliance.
| 10/30/2024 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Train Alliance on October 30, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Train Alliance Sweden or generate 0.0% return on investment in Train Alliance over 30 days. Train Alliance is related to or competes with Bergman Beving, FM Mattsson, Systemair, and Garo AB. Train Alliance Sweden AB develops production facilities for railway-related infrastructure and logistics operations in S... More
Train Alliance Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Train Alliance's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Train Alliance Sweden upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.36 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.14 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.11 |
Train Alliance Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Train Alliance's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Train Alliance's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Train Alliance historical prices to predict the future Train Alliance's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0087 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0062 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.03 |
Train Alliance Sweden Backtested Returns
Train Alliance Sweden owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0167, which indicates the firm had a -0.0167% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Train Alliance Sweden exposes twenty-eight different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Train Alliance's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0087, semi deviation of 1.17, and Coefficient Of Variation of 16122.44 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.0725, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Train Alliance are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Train Alliance is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Train Alliance Sweden has a negative expected return of -0.0212%. Please make sure to validate Train Alliance's value at risk, and the relationship between the jensen alpha and skewness , to decide if Train Alliance Sweden performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.81 |
Very good predictability
Train Alliance Sweden has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Train Alliance time series from 30th of October 2024 to 14th of November 2024 and 14th of November 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Train Alliance Sweden price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current Train Alliance price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.78 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.09 |
Train Alliance Sweden lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Train Alliance stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Train Alliance's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Train Alliance returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Train Alliance has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Train Alliance regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Train Alliance stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Train Alliance stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Train Alliance stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Train Alliance Lagged Returns
When evaluating Train Alliance's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Train Alliance stock have on its future price. Train Alliance autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Train Alliance autocorrelation shows the relationship between Train Alliance stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Train Alliance Sweden.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Other Information on Investing in Train Stock
Train Alliance financial ratios help investors to determine whether Train Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Train with respect to the benefits of owning Train Alliance security.