Thai Oil (Thailand) Market Value
| TOP Stock | THB 37.75 0.50 1.34% |
| Symbol | Thai |
Thai Oil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Thai Oil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Thai Oil.
| 12/13/2022 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Thai Oil on December 13, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Thai Oil Public or generate 0.0% return on investment in Thai Oil over 720 days. Thai Oil is related to or competes with PTT Public, SCB X, Siam Commercial, Siam Cement, Bangkok Bank, Kasikornbank Public, and Kasikornbank Public. Thai Oil Public Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in oil refining and distribution business in Th... More
Thai Oil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Thai Oil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Thai Oil Public upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.78 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.21) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.46 |
Thai Oil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Thai Oil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Thai Oil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Thai Oil historical prices to predict the future Thai Oil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.18) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.47) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.82) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 3.24 |
Thai Oil Public Backtested Returns
Thai Oil Public owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.24, which indicates the firm had a -0.24% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Thai Oil Public exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Thai Oil's Coefficient Of Variation of (411.73), risk adjusted performance of (0.18), and Variance of 3.9 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of -0.15, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Thai Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Thai Oil is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Thai Oil Public has a negative expected return of -0.48%. Please make sure to validate Thai Oil's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Thai Oil Public performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.02 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Thai Oil Public has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Thai Oil time series from 13th of December 2022 to 8th of December 2023 and 8th of December 2023 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Thai Oil Public price movement. The serial correlation of -0.02 indicates that only 2.0% of current Thai Oil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.02 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.04 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 20.03 |
Thai Oil Public lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Thai Oil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Thai Oil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Thai Oil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Thai Oil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Thai Oil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Thai Oil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Thai Oil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Thai Oil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Thai Oil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Thai Oil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Thai Oil stock have on its future price. Thai Oil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Thai Oil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Thai Oil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Thai Oil Public.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Thai Oil financial ratios help investors to determine whether Thai Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Thai with respect to the benefits of owning Thai Oil security.