Trilogy Metals Stock Market Value
| TMQ Stock | CAD 2.06 0.05 2.49% |
| Symbol | Trilogy |
Trilogy Metals 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Trilogy Metals' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Trilogy Metals.
| 03/12/2023 |
| 03/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Trilogy Metals on March 12, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Trilogy Metals or generate 0.0% return on investment in Trilogy Metals over 720 days. Trilogy Metals is related to or competes with Hannan Metals, Golden Minerals, Liberty Gold, Midnight Sun, and Solitario Exploration. Trilogy Metals Inc., a base metals exploration company, explores for and develops mineral properties in the United State... More
Trilogy Metals Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Trilogy Metals' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Trilogy Metals upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 5.29 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1215 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 23.83 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.56) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.41 |
Trilogy Metals Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Trilogy Metals' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Trilogy Metals' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Trilogy Metals historical prices to predict the future Trilogy Metals' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0959 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5613 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.7129 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1106 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (11.27) |
Trilogy Metals Backtested Returns
Trilogy Metals appears to be dangerous, given 3 months investment horizon. Trilogy Metals owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.12, which indicates the firm had a 0.12 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Trilogy Metals' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.56% is justified by implied risk. Please review Trilogy Metals' Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0959, semi deviation of 4.57, and Coefficient Of Variation of 841.9 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Trilogy Metals holds a performance score of 9. The entity has a beta of -0.0499, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Trilogy Metals are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Trilogy Metals is likely to outperform the market. Please check Trilogy Metals' sortino ratio, skewness, price action indicator, as well as the relationship between the potential upside and rate of daily change , to make a quick decision on whether Trilogy Metals' existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.62 |
Very good reverse predictability
Trilogy Metals has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Trilogy Metals time series from 12th of March 2023 to 6th of March 2024 and 6th of March 2024 to 1st of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Trilogy Metals price movement. The serial correlation of -0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current Trilogy Metals price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.63 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.24 |
Trilogy Metals lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Trilogy Metals stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Trilogy Metals' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Trilogy Metals returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Trilogy Metals has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Trilogy Metals regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Trilogy Metals stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Trilogy Metals stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Trilogy Metals stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Trilogy Metals Lagged Returns
When evaluating Trilogy Metals' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Trilogy Metals stock have on its future price. Trilogy Metals autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Trilogy Metals autocorrelation shows the relationship between Trilogy Metals stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Trilogy Metals.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Trilogy Metals
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Trilogy Metals position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Trilogy Metals will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.Moving together with Trilogy Stock
Moving against Trilogy Stock
| 0.74 | IE | Ivanhoe Energy | PairCorr |
| 0.52 | INFM | Infinico Metals Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.44 | NBLC | Nobel29 Resources Corp | PairCorr |
| 0.41 | RY | Royal Bank | PairCorr |
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Trilogy Metals could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Trilogy Metals when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Trilogy Metals - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Trilogy Metals to buy it.
The correlation of Trilogy Metals is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Trilogy Metals moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Trilogy Metals moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Trilogy Metals can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Check out Trilogy Metals Correlation, Trilogy Metals Volatility and Trilogy Metals Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Trilogy Metals. To learn how to invest in Trilogy Stock, please use our How to Invest in Trilogy Metals guide.You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Trilogy Metals technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.