Tembaga Mulia (Indonesia) Market Value
| TBMS Stock | IDR 885.00 20.00 2.21% |
| Symbol | Tembaga |
Tembaga Mulia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Tembaga Mulia's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Tembaga Mulia.
| 12/17/2024 |
| 03/17/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Tembaga Mulia on December 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Tembaga Mulia Semanan or generate 0.0% return on investment in Tembaga Mulia over 90 days. Tembaga Mulia is related to or competes with Unggul Indah, Surya Toto, Pelangi Indah, Trias Sentosa, and Lionmesh Prima. PT Tembaga Mulia Semanan Tbk manufactures, sells, and exports copper and aluminum rods and wires in Indonesia and intern... More
Tembaga Mulia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Tembaga Mulia's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Tembaga Mulia Semanan upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0284 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.55 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.31) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.73 |
Tembaga Mulia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Tembaga Mulia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Tembaga Mulia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Tembaga Mulia historical prices to predict the future Tembaga Mulia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0168 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1301 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.09) |
Tembaga Mulia Semanan Backtested Returns
Tembaga Mulia Semanan owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0352, which indicates the firm had a -0.0352 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Tembaga Mulia Semanan exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate Tembaga Mulia's Variance of 2.42, coefficient of variation of (2,837), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The entity has a beta of 0.75, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Tembaga Mulia's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Tembaga Mulia is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Tembaga Mulia Semanan has a negative expected return of -0.0549%. Please make sure to validate Tembaga Mulia's treynor ratio, value at risk, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Tembaga Mulia Semanan performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.39 |
Poor reverse predictability
Tembaga Mulia Semanan has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Tembaga Mulia time series from 17th of December 2024 to 31st of January 2025 and 31st of January 2025 to 17th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Tembaga Mulia Semanan price movement. The serial correlation of -0.39 indicates that just about 39.0% of current Tembaga Mulia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.39 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.16 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 384.84 |
Tembaga Mulia Semanan lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Tembaga Mulia stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Tembaga Mulia's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Tembaga Mulia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Tembaga Mulia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Tembaga Mulia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Tembaga Mulia stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Tembaga Mulia stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Tembaga Mulia stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Tembaga Mulia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Tembaga Mulia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Tembaga Mulia stock have on its future price. Tembaga Mulia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Tembaga Mulia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Tembaga Mulia stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Tembaga Mulia Semanan.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Tembaga Mulia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Tembaga Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Tembaga with respect to the benefits of owning Tembaga Mulia security.