Jaya Swarasa (Indonesia) Market Value
| TAYS Stock | 58.00 1.00 1.75% |
| Symbol | Jaya |
Jaya Swarasa 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Jaya Swarasa's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Jaya Swarasa.
| 11/11/2024 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Jaya Swarasa on November 11, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Jaya Swarasa Agung or generate 0.0% return on investment in Jaya Swarasa over 30 days. Jaya Swarasa is related to or competes with Wahana Inti, Formosa Ingredient, Triputra Agro, Cisarua Mountain, and Indo Pureco. More
Jaya Swarasa Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Jaya Swarasa's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Jaya Swarasa Agung upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 27.83 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.7 |
Jaya Swarasa Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Jaya Swarasa's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Jaya Swarasa's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Jaya Swarasa historical prices to predict the future Jaya Swarasa's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.36) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.84) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (3.97) |
Jaya Swarasa Agung Backtested Returns
Jaya Swarasa Agung holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.1, which attests that the entity had a -0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Jaya Swarasa Agung exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Jaya Swarasa's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.07), market risk adjusted performance of (3.96), and Standard Deviation of 3.07 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0894, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Jaya Swarasa's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Jaya Swarasa is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Jaya Swarasa Agung has a negative expected return of -0.32%. Please make sure to check out Jaya Swarasa's mean deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Jaya Swarasa Agung performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.26 |
Poor predictability
Jaya Swarasa Agung has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Jaya Swarasa time series from 11th of November 2024 to 26th of November 2024 and 26th of November 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Jaya Swarasa Agung price movement. The serial correlation of 0.26 indicates that nearly 26.0% of current Jaya Swarasa price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.26 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 2.24 |
Jaya Swarasa Agung lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Jaya Swarasa stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Jaya Swarasa's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Jaya Swarasa returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Jaya Swarasa has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Jaya Swarasa regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Jaya Swarasa stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Jaya Swarasa stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Jaya Swarasa stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Jaya Swarasa Lagged Returns
When evaluating Jaya Swarasa's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Jaya Swarasa stock have on its future price. Jaya Swarasa autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Jaya Swarasa autocorrelation shows the relationship between Jaya Swarasa stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Jaya Swarasa Agung.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Jaya Swarasa financial ratios help investors to determine whether Jaya Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Jaya with respect to the benefits of owning Jaya Swarasa security.