Ultra Short Term Municipal Fund Market Value
| SMAVX Fund | USD 9.63 0.01 0.10% |
| Symbol | Ultra |
Ultra Short 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ultra Short's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ultra Short.
| 12/19/2024 |
| 01/18/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ultra Short on December 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ultra Short Term Municipal or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ultra Short over 30 days. Ultra Short is related to or competes with Siit High, Ambrus Core, Blrc Sgy, Dreyfus/standish, Georgia Tax-free, and Maryland Tax-free. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of the funds net assets in municipal securities whose interest is exempt f... More
Ultra Short Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ultra Short's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ultra Short Term Municipal upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.1304 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.29) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 0.5217 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.10) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.1046 |
Ultra Short Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ultra Short's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ultra Short's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ultra Short historical prices to predict the future Ultra Short's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.17) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ultra Short's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ultra Short Term Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Ultra Mutual Fund to be very steady. Ultra Short Term owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.11, which indicates the fund had a 0.11% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-three technical indicators for Ultra Short Term Municipal, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the fund. Please validate Ultra Short's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01), variance of 0.0058, and Coefficient Of Variation of 960.82 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0084%. The entity has a beta of 0.0, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. the returns on MARKET and Ultra Short are completely uncorrelated.
Auto-correlation | -0.58 |
Good reverse predictability
Ultra Short Term Municipal has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ultra Short time series from 19th of December 2024 to 3rd of January 2025 and 3rd of January 2025 to 18th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ultra Short Term price movement. The serial correlation of -0.58 indicates that roughly 58.0% of current Ultra Short price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.58 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Ultra Short Term lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ultra Short mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ultra Short's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ultra Short returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ultra Short has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ultra Short regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ultra Short mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ultra Short mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ultra Short mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ultra Short Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ultra Short's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ultra Short mutual fund have on its future price. Ultra Short autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ultra Short autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ultra Short mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ultra Short Term Municipal.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Ultra Mutual Fund
Ultra Short financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ultra Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ultra with respect to the benefits of owning Ultra Short security.
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