First Eagle Overseas Fund Market Value

SGOIX Fund  USD 25.50  0.09  0.35%   
First Eagle's market value is the price at which a share of First Eagle trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of First Eagle Overseas investors about its performance. First Eagle is trading at 25.50 as of the 11th of December 2024; that is 0.35 percent decrease since the beginning of the trading day. The fund's open price was 25.59.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of First Eagle Overseas and determine expected loss or profit from investing in First Eagle over a given investment horizon. Check out First Eagle Correlation, First Eagle Volatility and First Eagle Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on First Eagle.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between First Eagle's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Eagle is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Eagle's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

First Eagle 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Eagle's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Eagle.
0.00
09/12/2024
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 2 months and 31 days
12/11/2024
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in First Eagle on September 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Eagle Overseas or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Eagle over 90 days. First Eagle is related to or competes with First Eagle, Turner Emerging, Oppenheimer Developing, Delaware Value, and Small Cap. The fund will invest primarily in equity securities of non-U.S More

First Eagle Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Eagle's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Eagle Overseas upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

First Eagle Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Eagle's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Eagle's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Eagle historical prices to predict the future First Eagle's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
24.9125.5026.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
24.9825.5726.16
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
25.2625.8526.43
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
24.8825.3725.87
Details

First Eagle Overseas Backtested Returns

First Eagle Overseas secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0184, which denotes the fund had a -0.0184% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. First Eagle Overseas exposes twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm First Eagle's Mean Deviation of 0.4421, coefficient of variation of 55008.48, and Downside Deviation of 0.5773 to check the risk estimate we provide. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.14, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, First Eagle's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding First Eagle is expected to be smaller as well.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.65  

Very good reverse predictability

First Eagle Overseas has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Eagle time series from 12th of September 2024 to 27th of October 2024 and 27th of October 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Eagle Overseas price movement. The serial correlation of -0.65 indicates that roughly 65.0% of current First Eagle price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.65
Spearman Rank Test0.36
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.08

First Eagle Overseas lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is First Eagle mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Eagle's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Eagle returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Eagle has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

First Eagle regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Eagle mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Eagle mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Eagle mutual fund over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

First Eagle Lagged Returns

When evaluating First Eagle's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Eagle mutual fund have on its future price. First Eagle autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Eagle autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Eagle mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Eagle Overseas.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

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Other Information on Investing in First Mutual Fund

First Eagle financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Eagle security.
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