SAF Special (Thailand) Market Value
| SAF Stock | 0.46 0.01 2.13% |
| Symbol | SAF |
SAF Special 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to SAF Special's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of SAF Special.
| 03/12/2023 |
| 03/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in SAF Special on March 12, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding SAF Special Steel or generate 0.0% return on investment in SAF Special over 720 days. SAF Special is related to or competes with TMBThanachart Bank, Mitsib Leasing, WHA Industrial, Hydrogen Freehold, and KTBST Mixed. More
SAF Special Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure SAF Special's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess SAF Special Steel upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.89 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.17 |
SAF Special Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for SAF Special's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as SAF Special's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use SAF Special historical prices to predict the future SAF Special's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.04) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.11) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.12) |
SAF Special Steel Backtested Returns
SAF Special Steel owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0693, which indicates the company had a -0.0693 % return per unit of volatility over the last 3 months. SAF Special Steel exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please validate SAF Special's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.11), risk adjusted performance of (0.04), and Standard Deviation of 2.5 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The firm has a beta of 0.16, which indicates not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, SAF Special's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding SAF Special is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, SAF Special Steel has a negative expected return of -0.17%. Please make sure to validate SAF Special's treynor ratio, value at risk, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and maximum drawdown , to decide if SAF Special Steel performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | 0.81 |
Very good predictability
SAF Special Steel has very good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between SAF Special time series from 12th of March 2023 to 6th of March 2024 and 6th of March 2024 to 1st of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of SAF Special Steel price movement. The serial correlation of 0.81 indicates that around 81.0% of current SAF Special price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.81 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
SAF Special Steel lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is SAF Special stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting SAF Special's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of SAF Special returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that SAF Special has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
SAF Special regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If SAF Special stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if SAF Special stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in SAF Special stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
SAF Special Lagged Returns
When evaluating SAF Special's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of SAF Special stock have on its future price. SAF Special autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, SAF Special autocorrelation shows the relationship between SAF Special stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in SAF Special Steel.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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SAF Special financial ratios help investors to determine whether SAF Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in SAF with respect to the benefits of owning SAF Special security.