Pakistan Refinery (Pakistan) Market Value
| PRL Stock | 33.61 1.01 3.10% |
| Symbol | Pakistan |
Pakistan Refinery 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Pakistan Refinery's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Pakistan Refinery.
| 09/13/2024 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Pakistan Refinery on September 13, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Pakistan Refinery or generate 0.0% return on investment in Pakistan Refinery over 90 days.
Pakistan Refinery Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Pakistan Refinery's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Pakistan Refinery upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.51 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1755 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.73 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.70) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.01 |
Pakistan Refinery Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Pakistan Refinery's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Pakistan Refinery's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Pakistan Refinery historical prices to predict the future Pakistan Refinery's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1633 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6765 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1675 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2181 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (5.03) |
Pakistan Refinery Backtested Returns
Pakistan Refinery appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Pakistan Refinery maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.22, which implies the firm had a 0.22% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Pakistan Refinery's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.69% is justified by implied risk. Please evaluate Pakistan Refinery's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1633, coefficient of variation of 464.19, and Semi Deviation of 1.92 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Pakistan Refinery holds a performance score of 17. The company holds a Beta of -0.13, which implies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Pakistan Refinery are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Pakistan Refinery is likely to outperform the market. Please check Pakistan Refinery's maximum drawdown, semi variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and potential upside , to make a quick decision on whether Pakistan Refinery's historical price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.33 |
Below average predictability
Pakistan Refinery has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Pakistan Refinery time series from 13th of September 2024 to 28th of October 2024 and 28th of October 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Pakistan Refinery price movement. The serial correlation of 0.33 indicates that nearly 33.0% of current Pakistan Refinery price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.33 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.42 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 9.03 |
Pakistan Refinery lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Pakistan Refinery stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Pakistan Refinery's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Pakistan Refinery returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Pakistan Refinery has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Pakistan Refinery regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Pakistan Refinery stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Pakistan Refinery stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Pakistan Refinery stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Pakistan Refinery Lagged Returns
When evaluating Pakistan Refinery's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Pakistan Refinery stock have on its future price. Pakistan Refinery autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Pakistan Refinery autocorrelation shows the relationship between Pakistan Refinery stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Pakistan Refinery.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Pakistan Refinery
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Pakistan Refinery position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Pakistan Refinery will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Pakistan Refinery could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Pakistan Refinery when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Pakistan Refinery - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Pakistan Refinery to buy it.
The correlation of Pakistan Refinery is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Pakistan Refinery moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Pakistan Refinery moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Pakistan Refinery can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.Additional Tools for Pakistan Stock Analysis
When running Pakistan Refinery's price analysis, check to measure Pakistan Refinery's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Pakistan Refinery is operating at the current time. Most of Pakistan Refinery's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Pakistan Refinery's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Pakistan Refinery's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Pakistan Refinery to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.