NPF MICRO (Nigeria) Market Value
| NPFMCRFBK | 1.89 0.01 0.53% |
| Symbol | NPF |
NPF MICRO 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to NPF MICRO's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of NPF MICRO.
| 12/20/2024 |
| 03/20/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in NPF MICRO on December 20, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding NPF MICRO FINANCE or generate 0.0% return on investment in NPF MICRO over 90 days.
NPF MICRO Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure NPF MICRO's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess NPF MICRO FINANCE upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1151 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.65 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.74) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.17 |
NPF MICRO Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for NPF MICRO's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as NPF MICRO's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use NPF MICRO historical prices to predict the future NPF MICRO's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0879 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.2049 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.4727 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1012 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.50) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NPF MICRO's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NPF MICRO FINANCE Backtested Returns
NPF MICRO appears to be very risky, given 3 months investment horizon. NPF MICRO FINANCE has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0915, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0915 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for NPF MICRO, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please exercise NPF MICRO's mean deviation of 1.93, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0879 to check out if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, NPF MICRO holds a performance score of 7. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.48, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning NPF MICRO are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, NPF MICRO is likely to outperform the market. Please check NPF MICRO's standard deviation, value at risk, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether NPF MICRO's current price movements will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.16 |
Very weak predictability
NPF MICRO FINANCE has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between NPF MICRO time series from 20th of December 2024 to 3rd of February 2025 and 3rd of February 2025 to 20th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of NPF MICRO FINANCE price movement. The serial correlation of 0.16 indicates that over 16.0% of current NPF MICRO price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.16 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
NPF MICRO FINANCE lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is NPF MICRO stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting NPF MICRO's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of NPF MICRO returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that NPF MICRO has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
NPF MICRO regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If NPF MICRO stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if NPF MICRO stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in NPF MICRO stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
NPF MICRO Lagged Returns
When evaluating NPF MICRO's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of NPF MICRO stock have on its future price. NPF MICRO autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, NPF MICRO autocorrelation shows the relationship between NPF MICRO stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in NPF MICRO FINANCE.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |