Media Nusantara (Indonesia) Market Value
| MNCN Stock | IDR 300.00 8.00 2.60% |
| Symbol | Media |
Media Nusantara 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Media Nusantara's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Media Nusantara.
| 10/31/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Media Nusantara on October 31, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Media Nusantara Citra or generate 0.0% return on investment in Media Nusantara over 30 days. Media Nusantara is related to or competes with Global Mediacom, Surya Citra, Akr Corporindo, Bumi Serpong, and Wijaya Karya. Media Nusantara Citra Tbk operates as an integrated media company in Indonesia More
Media Nusantara Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Media Nusantara's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Media Nusantara Citra upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.16) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.60) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.05 |
Media Nusantara Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Media Nusantara's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Media Nusantara's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Media Nusantara historical prices to predict the future Media Nusantara's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.06) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.22) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.43) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.28) |
Media Nusantara Citra Backtested Returns
Media Nusantara Citra has Sharpe Ratio of -0.0741, which conveys that the firm had a -0.0741% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Media Nusantara exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Media Nusantara's Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.06), mean deviation of 1.22, and Standard Deviation of 1.68 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of 0.54, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Media Nusantara's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Media Nusantara is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Media Nusantara Citra has a negative expected return of -0.13%. Please make sure to verify Media Nusantara's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Media Nusantara Citra performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.27 |
Weak reverse predictability
Media Nusantara Citra has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Media Nusantara time series from 31st of October 2024 to 15th of November 2024 and 15th of November 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Media Nusantara Citra price movement. The serial correlation of -0.27 indicates that nearly 27.0% of current Media Nusantara price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.27 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.45 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 12.04 |
Media Nusantara Citra lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Media Nusantara stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Media Nusantara's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Media Nusantara returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Media Nusantara has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Media Nusantara regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Media Nusantara stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Media Nusantara stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Media Nusantara stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Media Nusantara Lagged Returns
When evaluating Media Nusantara's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Media Nusantara stock have on its future price. Media Nusantara autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Media Nusantara autocorrelation shows the relationship between Media Nusantara stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Media Nusantara Citra.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Media Nusantara financial ratios help investors to determine whether Media Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Media with respect to the benefits of owning Media Nusantara security.