Mainstay Moderate Growth Fund Market Value
| MGDCX Fund | USD 14.68 0.11 0.74% |
| Symbol | Mainstay |
Mainstay Moderate 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Mainstay Moderate's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Mainstay Moderate.
| 12/27/2024 |
| 03/27/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Mainstay Moderate on December 27, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Mainstay Moderate Growth or generate 0.0% return on investment in Mainstay Moderate over 90 days. Mainstay Moderate is related to or competes with Gabelli Global, Icon Financial, Rmb Mendon, Fidelity Advisor, and Transamerica Financial. The fund is a fund of funds that seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing primarily in mutual funds and ET... More
Mainstay Moderate Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Mainstay Moderate's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Mainstay Moderate Growth upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.09) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.62 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.34) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.19 |
Mainstay Moderate Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Mainstay Moderate's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Mainstay Moderate's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Mainstay Moderate historical prices to predict the future Mainstay Moderate's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.08) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.12) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.08) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.98 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mainstay Moderate's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mainstay Moderate Growth Backtested Returns
Mainstay Moderate Growth has Sharpe Ratio of -0.11, which conveys that the entity had a -0.11 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Mainstay Moderate exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please verify Mainstay Moderate's Standard Deviation of 1.03, risk adjusted performance of (0.08), and Mean Deviation of 0.6543 to check out the risk estimate we provide. The fund secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.0577, which conveys not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Mainstay Moderate are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Mainstay Moderate is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.55 |
Good reverse predictability
Mainstay Moderate Growth has good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Mainstay Moderate time series from 27th of December 2024 to 10th of February 2025 and 10th of February 2025 to 27th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Mainstay Moderate Growth price movement. The serial correlation of -0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Mainstay Moderate price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.64 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.11 |
Mainstay Moderate Growth lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Mainstay Moderate mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Mainstay Moderate's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Mainstay Moderate returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Mainstay Moderate has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Mainstay Moderate regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Mainstay Moderate mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Mainstay Moderate mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Mainstay Moderate mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Mainstay Moderate Lagged Returns
When evaluating Mainstay Moderate's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Mainstay Moderate mutual fund have on its future price. Mainstay Moderate autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Mainstay Moderate autocorrelation shows the relationship between Mainstay Moderate mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Mainstay Moderate Growth.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Mainstay Mutual Fund
Mainstay Moderate financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mainstay Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mainstay with respect to the benefits of owning Mainstay Moderate security.
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