Merchant Bank (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| MBSLN0000 | LKR 5.90 0.20 3.51% |
| Symbol | Merchant |
Please note, there is a significant difference between Merchant Bank's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Merchant Bank is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Merchant Bank's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Merchant Bank 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Merchant Bank's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Merchant Bank.
| 12/19/2024 |
| 03/19/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Merchant Bank on December 19, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Merchant Bank of or generate 0.0% return on investment in Merchant Bank over 90 days. More
Merchant Bank Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Merchant Bank's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Merchant Bank of upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.38 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0773 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.26 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.76 |
Merchant Bank Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Merchant Bank's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Merchant Bank's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Merchant Bank historical prices to predict the future Merchant Bank's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0453 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0596 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.3518 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0793 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.23) |
Merchant Bank Backtested Returns
At this point, Merchant Bank is slightly risky. Merchant Bank has Sharpe Ratio of 0.0627, which conveys that the firm had a 0.0627 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Merchant Bank, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please verify Merchant Bank's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0453, downside deviation of 2.38, and Mean Deviation of 1.92 to check out if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.16%. Merchant Bank has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company secures a Beta (Market Risk) of -0.43, which conveys possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Merchant Bank are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Merchant Bank is likely to outperform the market. Merchant Bank right now secures a risk of 2.48%. Please verify Merchant Bank of value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day typical price , to decide if Merchant Bank of will be following its current price movements.
Auto-correlation | -0.86 |
Excellent reverse predictability
Merchant Bank of has excellent reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Merchant Bank time series from 19th of December 2024 to 2nd of February 2025 and 2nd of February 2025 to 19th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Merchant Bank price movement. The serial correlation of -0.86 indicates that approximately 86.0% of current Merchant Bank price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.86 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.82 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.11 |
Merchant Bank lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Merchant Bank stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Merchant Bank's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Merchant Bank returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Merchant Bank has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Merchant Bank regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Merchant Bank stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Merchant Bank stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Merchant Bank stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Merchant Bank Lagged Returns
When evaluating Merchant Bank's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Merchant Bank stock have on its future price. Merchant Bank autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Merchant Bank autocorrelation shows the relationship between Merchant Bank stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Merchant Bank of.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Merchant Bank financial ratios help investors to determine whether Merchant Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Merchant with respect to the benefits of owning Merchant Bank security.