Japan Tobacco Adr Stock Market Value
| JAPAY Stock | USD 13.23 0.12 0.92% |
| Symbol | Japan |
Japan Tobacco 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Japan Tobacco's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Japan Tobacco.
| 12/17/2024 |
| 03/17/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Japan Tobacco on December 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Japan Tobacco ADR or generate 0.0% return on investment in Japan Tobacco over 90 days. Japan Tobacco is related to or competes with British American, Imperial Brands, RLX Technology, British Amer, Turning Point, Imperial Brands, and Universal. Japan Tobacco Inc., a tobacco company, manufactures and sells tobacco products, prescription drugs, and processed foods ... More
Japan Tobacco Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Japan Tobacco's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Japan Tobacco ADR upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0107 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.18 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.78) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.93 |
Japan Tobacco Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Japan Tobacco's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Japan Tobacco's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Japan Tobacco historical prices to predict the future Japan Tobacco's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0343 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.05) |
Japan Tobacco ADR Backtested Returns
Japan Tobacco ADR holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0281, which attests that the entity had a -0.0281 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Japan Tobacco ADR exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Japan Tobacco's Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.04), risk adjusted performance of (0.07), and Standard Deviation of 1.05 to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0934, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Japan Tobacco's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Japan Tobacco is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Japan Tobacco ADR has a negative expected return of -0.0304%. Please make sure to check out Japan Tobacco's total risk alpha, skewness, as well as the relationship between the Skewness and day median price , to decide if Japan Tobacco ADR performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.26 |
Poor predictability
Japan Tobacco ADR has poor predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Japan Tobacco time series from 17th of December 2024 to 31st of January 2025 and 31st of January 2025 to 17th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Japan Tobacco ADR price movement. The serial correlation of 0.26 indicates that nearly 26.0% of current Japan Tobacco price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.26 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.51 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.07 |
Japan Tobacco ADR lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Japan Tobacco pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Japan Tobacco's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Japan Tobacco returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Japan Tobacco has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Japan Tobacco regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Japan Tobacco pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Japan Tobacco pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Japan Tobacco pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Japan Tobacco Lagged Returns
When evaluating Japan Tobacco's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Japan Tobacco pink sheet have on its future price. Japan Tobacco autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Japan Tobacco autocorrelation shows the relationship between Japan Tobacco pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Japan Tobacco ADR.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Japan Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Japan Tobacco's price analysis, check to measure Japan Tobacco's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Japan Tobacco is operating at the current time. Most of Japan Tobacco's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Japan Tobacco's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Japan Tobacco's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Japan Tobacco to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.