HVA Foods (Sri Lanka) Market Value
| HVAN0000 | LKR 3.90 0.10 2.50% |
| Symbol | HVA |
Please note, there is a significant difference between HVA Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if HVA Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, HVA Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
HVA Foods 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to HVA Foods' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of HVA Foods.
| 11/20/2023 |
| 12/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in HVA Foods on November 20, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding HVA Foods PLC or generate 0.0% return on investment in HVA Foods over 390 days. More
HVA Foods Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure HVA Foods' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess HVA Foods PLC upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.66 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0748 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 36.11 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.06) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.67 |
HVA Foods Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for HVA Foods' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as HVA Foods' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use HVA Foods historical prices to predict the future HVA Foods' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0782 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.4368 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.14) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.075 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 14.85 |
HVA Foods PLC Backtested Returns
HVA Foods appears to be risky, given 3 months investment horizon. HVA Foods PLC retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.1, which attests that the entity had a 0.1% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for HVA Foods, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize HVA Foods' Coefficient Of Variation of 1038.97, semi deviation of 2.72, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 14.86 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, HVA Foods holds a performance score of 8. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.0296, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, HVA Foods' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding HVA Foods is expected to be smaller as well. Please check HVA Foods' semi deviation, coefficient of variation, and the relationship between the mean deviation and downside deviation , to make a quick decision on whether HVA Foods' current price history will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.01 |
Very weak reverse predictability
HVA Foods PLC has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between HVA Foods time series from 20th of November 2023 to 2nd of June 2024 and 2nd of June 2024 to 14th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of HVA Foods PLC price movement. The serial correlation of -0.01 indicates that just 1.0% of current HVA Foods price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.01 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.1 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.06 |
HVA Foods PLC lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is HVA Foods stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting HVA Foods' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of HVA Foods returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that HVA Foods has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
HVA Foods regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If HVA Foods stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if HVA Foods stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in HVA Foods stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
HVA Foods Lagged Returns
When evaluating HVA Foods' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of HVA Foods stock have on its future price. HVA Foods autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, HVA Foods autocorrelation shows the relationship between HVA Foods stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in HVA Foods PLC.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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HVA Foods financial ratios help investors to determine whether HVA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in HVA with respect to the benefits of owning HVA Foods security.