Guggenheim Municipal Income Fund Market Value
| GIJCX Fund | USD 11.30 0.04 0.36% |
| Symbol | Guggenheim |
Guggenheim Municipal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Guggenheim Municipal's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Guggenheim Municipal.
| 12/21/2024 |
| 01/20/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Guggenheim Municipal on December 21, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Guggenheim Municipal Income or generate 0.0% return on investment in Guggenheim Municipal over 30 days. Guggenheim Municipal is related to or competes with Mid Cap, Inverse Nasdaq, Saat Defensive, Black Oak, Artisan Developing, Siit Emerging, and Wcm Focused. The fund normally invests at least 80 percent of its assets in a diversified portfolio of municipal securities whose int... More
Guggenheim Municipal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Guggenheim Municipal's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Guggenheim Municipal Income upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.1) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.77 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.62) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4464 |
Guggenheim Municipal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Guggenheim Municipal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Guggenheim Municipal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Guggenheim Municipal historical prices to predict the future Guggenheim Municipal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.02) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.4829 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Guggenheim Municipal's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Guggenheim Municipal Backtested Returns
Guggenheim Municipal holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0109, which attests that the entity had a -0.0109 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Guggenheim Municipal exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Guggenheim Municipal's Standard Deviation of 0.3449, market risk adjusted performance of 0.4929, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.02) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of -0.0285, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Guggenheim Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Guggenheim Municipal is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | -0.5 |
Modest reverse predictability
Guggenheim Municipal Income has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Guggenheim Municipal time series from 21st of December 2024 to 5th of January 2025 and 5th of January 2025 to 20th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Guggenheim Municipal price movement. The serial correlation of -0.5 indicates that about 50.0% of current Guggenheim Municipal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.5 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.35 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Guggenheim Municipal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Guggenheim Municipal's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Guggenheim Municipal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Guggenheim Municipal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Municipal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Guggenheim Municipal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Guggenheim Municipal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund have on its future price. Guggenheim Municipal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Guggenheim Municipal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Guggenheim Municipal mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Guggenheim Municipal Income.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Guggenheim Mutual Fund
Guggenheim Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Guggenheim Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Guggenheim with respect to the benefits of owning Guggenheim Municipal security.
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