Garuda Indonesia (Indonesia) Market Value
| GIAA Stock | IDR 60.00 1.00 1.69% |
| Symbol | Garuda |
Garuda Indonesia 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Garuda Indonesia's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Garuda Indonesia.
| 11/02/2024 |
| 12/02/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Garuda Indonesia on November 2, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Garuda Indonesia Persero or generate 0.0% return on investment in Garuda Indonesia over 30 days. Garuda Indonesia is related to or competes with Intanwijaya Internasional, Champion Pacific, Mitra Pinasthika, Jakarta Int, Asuransi Harta, Indosterling Technomedia, and Indosat Tbk. More
Garuda Indonesia Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Garuda Indonesia's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Garuda Indonesia Persero upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.08) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.62 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.29) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.86 |
Garuda Indonesia Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Garuda Indonesia's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Garuda Indonesia's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Garuda Indonesia historical prices to predict the future Garuda Indonesia's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.15) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.50) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.14) |
Garuda Indonesia Persero Backtested Returns
Garuda Indonesia Persero holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.0171, which attests that the entity had a -0.0171% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Garuda Indonesia Persero exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Garuda Indonesia's Standard Deviation of 2.54, market risk adjusted performance of (0.13), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.01) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.56, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Garuda Indonesia's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Garuda Indonesia is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Garuda Indonesia Persero has a negative expected return of -0.0444%. Please make sure to check out Garuda Indonesia's maximum drawdown, potential upside, kurtosis, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and skewness , to decide if Garuda Indonesia Persero performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.61 |
Good predictability
Garuda Indonesia Persero has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Garuda Indonesia time series from 2nd of November 2024 to 17th of November 2024 and 17th of November 2024 to 2nd of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Garuda Indonesia Persero price movement. The serial correlation of 0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current Garuda Indonesia price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.61 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.77 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.16 |
Garuda Indonesia Persero lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Garuda Indonesia stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Garuda Indonesia's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Garuda Indonesia returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Garuda Indonesia has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Garuda Indonesia regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Garuda Indonesia stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Garuda Indonesia stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Garuda Indonesia stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Garuda Indonesia Lagged Returns
When evaluating Garuda Indonesia's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Garuda Indonesia stock have on its future price. Garuda Indonesia autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Garuda Indonesia autocorrelation shows the relationship between Garuda Indonesia stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Garuda Indonesia Persero.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Garuda Indonesia financial ratios help investors to determine whether Garuda Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Garuda with respect to the benefits of owning Garuda Indonesia security.