Gafisa SA (Brazil) Market Value
| GFSA3 Stock | BRL 1.48 0.10 7.25% |
| Symbol | Gafisa |
Gafisa SA 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Gafisa SA's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Gafisa SA.
| 06/08/2023 |
| 11/29/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Gafisa SA on June 8, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Gafisa SA or generate 0.0% return on investment in Gafisa SA over 540 days. Gafisa SA is related to or competes with Engie Brasil, Fras Le, Energisa, BTG Pactual, Procter Gamble, Companhia Paranaense, and Randon SA. Gafisa S.A. operates as a homebuilder under the Gafisa brand name in Brazil More
Gafisa SA Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Gafisa SA's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Gafisa SA upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 18.27 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.16 |
Gafisa SA Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Gafisa SA's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Gafisa SA's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Gafisa SA historical prices to predict the future Gafisa SA's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.20) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (1.08) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (1.64) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (14.02) |
Gafisa SA Backtested Returns
Gafisa SA holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.24, which attests that the entity had a -0.24% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Gafisa SA exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Gafisa SA's Standard Deviation of 3.84, market risk adjusted performance of (14.01), and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.20) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0761, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Gafisa SA's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Gafisa SA is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Gafisa SA has a negative expected return of -0.94%. Please make sure to check out Gafisa SA's jensen alpha, treynor ratio, and the relationship between the standard deviation and total risk alpha , to decide if Gafisa SA performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.26 |
Weak reverse predictability
Gafisa SA has weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Gafisa SA time series from 8th of June 2023 to 4th of March 2024 and 4th of March 2024 to 29th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Gafisa SA price movement. The serial correlation of -0.26 indicates that nearly 26.0% of current Gafisa SA price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.26 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.38 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 4.17 |
Gafisa SA lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Gafisa SA stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Gafisa SA's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Gafisa SA returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Gafisa SA has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Gafisa SA regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Gafisa SA stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Gafisa SA stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Gafisa SA stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Gafisa SA Lagged Returns
When evaluating Gafisa SA's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Gafisa SA stock have on its future price. Gafisa SA autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Gafisa SA autocorrelation shows the relationship between Gafisa SA stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Gafisa SA.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Additional Tools for Gafisa Stock Analysis
When running Gafisa SA's price analysis, check to measure Gafisa SA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Gafisa SA is operating at the current time. Most of Gafisa SA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Gafisa SA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Gafisa SA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Gafisa SA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.