First Trustconfluence Small Fund Market Value
| FOVCX Fund | USD 25.74 0.16 0.62% |
| Symbol | First |
First Trustconfluence 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Trustconfluence's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Trustconfluence.
| 12/24/2022 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Trustconfluence on December 24, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Trustconfluence Small or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Trustconfluence over 720 days. First Trustconfluence is related to or competes with First Trust, Franklin Templeton, First Trust, First Trust, First Trust, Vivaldi Merger, and First Trust. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by investing, under normal market conditions, at least 80 percent of ... More
First Trustconfluence Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Trustconfluence's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Trustconfluence Small upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.8918 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 5.39 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.28) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.65 |
First Trustconfluence Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Trustconfluence's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Trustconfluence's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Trustconfluence historical prices to predict the future First Trustconfluence's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0703 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0758 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of First Trustconfluence's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
First Trustconfluence Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider First Mutual Fund to be very steady. First Trustconfluence secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.043, which denotes the fund had a 0.043% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for First Trustconfluence Small, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm First Trustconfluence's Mean Deviation of 0.7728, downside deviation of 0.8918, and Coefficient Of Variation of 1078.82 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0438%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 1.13, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. First Trustconfluence returns are very sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, First Trustconfluence is expected to follow.
Auto-correlation | -0.45 |
Modest reverse predictability
First Trustconfluence Small has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Trustconfluence time series from 24th of December 2022 to 19th of December 2023 and 19th of December 2023 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Trustconfluence price movement. The serial correlation of -0.45 indicates that just about 45.0% of current First Trustconfluence price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.45 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.38 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.94 |
First Trustconfluence lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Trustconfluence mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Trustconfluence's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Trustconfluence returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Trustconfluence has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Trustconfluence regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Trustconfluence mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Trustconfluence mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Trustconfluence mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Trustconfluence Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Trustconfluence's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Trustconfluence mutual fund have on its future price. First Trustconfluence autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Trustconfluence autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Trustconfluence mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Trustconfluence Small.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in First Mutual Fund
First Trustconfluence financial ratios help investors to determine whether First Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in First with respect to the benefits of owning First Trustconfluence security.
| Portfolio Rebalancing Analyze risk-adjusted returns against different time horizons to find asset-allocation targets | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum | |
| Risk-Return Analysis View associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume |