Fossil Group Stock Market Value
| FOSL Stock | USD 1.49 0.07 4.93% |
| Symbol | Fossil |
Fossil Group Price To Book Ratio
Is Apparel, Accessories & Luxury Goods space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Fossil. If investors know Fossil will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Fossil listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.82) | Earnings Share (2.33) | Revenue Per Share 23.195 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.16) | Return On Assets (0.04) |
The market value of Fossil Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Fossil that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Fossil's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Fossil's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Fossil's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Fossil's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Fossil's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Fossil is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Fossil's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
Fossil 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fossil's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fossil.
| 10/29/2024 |
| 11/28/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fossil on October 29, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fossil Group or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fossil over 30 days. Fossil is related to or competes with VF, Levi Strauss, Under Armour, Columbia Sportswear, Oxford Industries, Kontoor Brands, and G III. Fossil Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, markets, and distributes consumer fashion accesso... More
Fossil Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fossil's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fossil Group upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 4.03 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0897 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 19.38 | |||
| Value At Risk | (6.31) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.91 |
Fossil Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fossil's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fossil's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fossil historical prices to predict the future Fossil's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0981 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5649 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.16) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1014 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.49) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Fossil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Fossil Group Backtested Returns
Fossil appears to be very risky, given 3 months investment horizon. Fossil Group secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.12, which denotes the company had a 0.12% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By reviewing Fossil's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.54% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Fossil's Mean Deviation of 3.51, coefficient of variation of 853.19, and Downside Deviation of 4.03 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Fossil holds a performance score of 9. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.35, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Fossil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Fossil is likely to outperform the market. Please check Fossil's value at risk, as well as the relationship between the skewness and day median price , to make a quick decision on whether Fossil's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | -0.37 |
Poor reverse predictability
Fossil Group has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fossil time series from 29th of October 2024 to 13th of November 2024 and 13th of November 2024 to 28th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fossil Group price movement. The serial correlation of -0.37 indicates that just about 37.0% of current Fossil price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.37 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.22 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.01 |
Fossil Group lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fossil stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fossil's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fossil returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fossil has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fossil regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fossil stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fossil stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fossil stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fossil Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fossil's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fossil stock have on its future price. Fossil autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fossil autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fossil stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fossil Group.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Fossil technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.