Federal National Mortgage Stock Market Value
| FNMFM Stock | USD 14.82 0.26 1.79% |
| Symbol | Federal |
Federal National 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Federal National's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Federal National.
| 12/24/2022 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Federal National on December 24, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Federal National Mortgage or generate 0.0% return on investment in Federal National over 720 days. Federal National is related to or competes with Federal Home, Federal Home, Federal Home, Federal Home, Federal National, Federal Home, and Federal Home. Federal National Mortgage Association provides a source of financing for mortgages in the United States More
Federal National Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Federal National's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Federal National Mortgage upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 7.64 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1567 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 74.91 | |||
| Value At Risk | (9.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.62 |
Federal National Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Federal National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Federal National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Federal National historical prices to predict the future Federal National's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1318 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.8212 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2546 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1896 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.2165 |
Federal National Mortgage Backtested Returns
Federal National is moderately volatile given 3 months investment horizon. Federal National Mortgage secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.17, which denotes the company had a 0.17% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We were able to analyze and collect data for twenty-seven different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate if expected returns of 1.61% are justified by taking the suggested risk. Use Federal National Downside Deviation of 7.64, mean deviation of 4.06, and Coefficient Of Variation of 592.59 to evaluate company specific risk that cannot be diversified away. Federal National holds a performance score of 13 on a scale of zero to a hundred. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 7.16, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Federal National will likely underperform. Use Federal National coefficient of variation, potential upside, day median price, as well as the relationship between the sortino ratio and skewness , to analyze future returns on Federal National.
Auto-correlation | -0.04 |
Very weak reverse predictability
Federal National Mortgage has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Federal National time series from 24th of December 2022 to 19th of December 2023 and 19th of December 2023 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Federal National Mortgage price movement. The serial correlation of -0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Federal National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 7.61 |
Federal National Mortgage lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Federal National pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Federal National's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Federal National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Federal National has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Federal National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Federal National pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Federal National pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Federal National pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Federal National Lagged Returns
When evaluating Federal National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Federal National pink sheet have on its future price. Federal National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Federal National autocorrelation shows the relationship between Federal National pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Federal National Mortgage.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Federal National financial ratios help investors to determine whether Federal Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Federal with respect to the benefits of owning Federal National security.