American States (Germany) Market Value
| FDK Stock | 73.55 1.35 1.80% |
| Symbol | American |
American States 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to American States' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of American States.
| 11/13/2023 |
| 01/06/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in American States on November 13, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding American States Water or generate 0.0% return on investment in American States over 420 days. American States is related to or competes with ARDAGH METAL, G-III Apparel, Harmony Gold, Jacquet Metal, Urban Outfitters, and ADRIATIC METALS. More
American States Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure American States' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess American States Water upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.14) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.72 |
American States Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for American States' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as American States' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use American States historical prices to predict the future American States' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0029 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (7.18) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American States' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American States Water Backtested Returns
American States Water secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.002, which signifies that the company had a -0.002% return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. American States Water exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm American States' mean deviation of 1.1, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0029 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0018, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, American States' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding American States is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, American States Water has a negative expected return of -0.0029%. Please make sure to confirm American States' skewness, day typical price, and the relationship between the maximum drawdown and daily balance of power , to decide if American States Water performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | -0.61 |
Very good reverse predictability
American States Water has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between American States time series from 13th of November 2023 to 10th of June 2024 and 10th of June 2024 to 6th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of American States Water price movement. The serial correlation of -0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current American States price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.61 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.52 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 21.11 |
American States Water lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is American States stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting American States' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of American States returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that American States has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
American States regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If American States stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if American States stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in American States stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
American States Lagged Returns
When evaluating American States' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of American States stock have on its future price. American States autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, American States autocorrelation shows the relationship between American States stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in American States Water.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for American Stock Analysis
When running American States' price analysis, check to measure American States' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy American States is operating at the current time. Most of American States' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of American States' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move American States' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of American States to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.