First Trust California Etf Market Value
| FCAL Etf | USD 50.37 0.05 0.1% |
| Symbol | First |
The market value of First Trust California is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of First that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of First Trust's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is First Trust's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because First Trust's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect First Trust's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between First Trust's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if First Trust is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, First Trust's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.
First Trust 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to First Trust's etf what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of First Trust.
| 07/20/2023 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in First Trust on July 20, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding First Trust California or generate 0.0% return on investment in First Trust over 510 days. First Trust is related to or competes with First Trust, First Trust, First Trust, First Trust, and First Trust. The fund seeks to achieve its investment objectives by investing at least 80 percent of its net assets in municipal debt... More
First Trust Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure First Trust's etf current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess First Trust California upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.3284 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.36) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.51 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.54) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.4021 |
First Trust Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for First Trust's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as First Trust's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use First Trust historical prices to predict the future First Trust's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0396 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0161 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.03) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.31) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.30) |
First Trust California Backtested Returns
As of now, First Etf is out of control. First Trust California secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0661, which denotes the etf had a 0.0661% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for First Trust California, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm First Trust's Coefficient Of Variation of 1309.21, downside deviation of 0.3284, and Mean Deviation of 0.2144 to check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0191%. The etf shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.0389, which means not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning First Trust are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, First Trust is likely to outperform the market.
Auto-correlation | 0.72 |
Good predictability
First Trust California has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between First Trust time series from 20th of July 2023 to 31st of March 2024 and 31st of March 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of First Trust California price movement. The serial correlation of 0.72 indicates that around 72.0% of current First Trust price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.72 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.69 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.43 |
First Trust California lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is First Trust etf's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting First Trust's etf expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of First Trust returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that First Trust has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the etf is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
First Trust regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If First Trust etf is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if First Trust etf is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in First Trust etf over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
First Trust Lagged Returns
When evaluating First Trust's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of First Trust etf have on its future price. First Trust autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, First Trust autocorrelation shows the relationship between First Trust etf current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in First Trust California.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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First Trust technical etf analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, etf market cycles, or different charting patterns.