Fastenal (Germany) Market Value
| FAS Stock | EUR 72.08 1.04 1.46% |
| Symbol | Fastenal |
Fastenal 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Fastenal's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Fastenal.
| 02/04/2023 |
| 12/25/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Fastenal on February 4, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Fastenal Company or generate 0.0% return on investment in Fastenal over 690 days. Fastenal is related to or competes with WW Grainger, Watsco, WATSCO INC, RATIONAL UNADR, WESCO International, and Indutrade. Fastenal Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction s... More
Fastenal Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Fastenal's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Fastenal Company upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.9283 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0873 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 12.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.38) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.07 |
Fastenal Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Fastenal's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Fastenal's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Fastenal historical prices to predict the future Fastenal's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0965 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.1626 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.108 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1571 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.3494 |
Fastenal Backtested Returns
Fastenal appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Fastenal secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.13, which denotes the company had a 0.13% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Fastenal Company, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please utilize Fastenal's Downside Deviation of 0.9283, mean deviation of 1.0, and Coefficient Of Variation of 876.31 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Fastenal holds a performance score of 10. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.52, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Fastenal's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Fastenal is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Fastenal's sortino ratio, potential upside, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and semi variance , to make a quick decision on whether Fastenal's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.55 |
Modest predictability
Fastenal Company has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Fastenal time series from 4th of February 2023 to 15th of January 2024 and 15th of January 2024 to 25th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Fastenal price movement. The serial correlation of 0.55 indicates that about 55.0% of current Fastenal price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.55 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.29 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 36.7 |
Fastenal lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Fastenal stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Fastenal's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Fastenal returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Fastenal has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Fastenal regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Fastenal stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Fastenal stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Fastenal stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Fastenal Lagged Returns
When evaluating Fastenal's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Fastenal stock have on its future price. Fastenal autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Fastenal autocorrelation shows the relationship between Fastenal stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Fastenal Company.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Fastenal Stock
When determining whether Fastenal is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Fastenal Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Fastenal Company Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Fastenal Company Stock:Check out Fastenal Correlation, Fastenal Volatility and Fastenal Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Fastenal. You can also try the Sync Your Broker module to sync your existing holdings, watchlists, positions or portfolios from thousands of online brokerage services, banks, investment account aggregators and robo-advisors..
Fastenal technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.