EMERGENT BIOSOLUT (Germany) Market Value
| ER4 Stock | EUR 9.49 0.01 0.11% |
| Symbol | EMERGENT |
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of EMERGENT BIOSOLUT.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in EMERGENT BIOSOLUT on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding EMERGENT BIOSOLUT or generate 0.0% return on investment in EMERGENT BIOSOLUT over 30 days. EMERGENT BIOSOLUT is related to or competes with Dave Busters, Playa Hotels, TFS FINANCIAL, Hanover Insurance, Tencent Music, and ATRESMEDIA. More
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess EMERGENT BIOSOLUT upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 6.79 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.019 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 43.96 | |||
| Value At Risk | (10.60) | |||
| Potential Upside | 10.55 |
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use EMERGENT BIOSOLUT historical prices to predict the future EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0382 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.34) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.93) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.02 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0561 |
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT Backtested Returns
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT appears to be relatively risky, given 3 months investment horizon. EMERGENT BIOSOLUT secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0747, which denotes the company had a 0.0747% return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. By analyzing EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.51% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's mean deviation of 5.01, and Downside Deviation of 6.79 to check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, EMERGENT BIOSOLUT holds a performance score of 5. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 4.7, which means a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, EMERGENT BIOSOLUT will likely underperform. Please check EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's semi deviation, coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, as well as the relationship between the downside deviation and information ratio , to make a quick decision on whether EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.69 |
Good predictability
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between EMERGENT BIOSOLUT time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of EMERGENT BIOSOLUT price movement. The serial correlation of 0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current EMERGENT BIOSOLUT price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.69 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.46 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.6 |
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is EMERGENT BIOSOLUT stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of EMERGENT BIOSOLUT returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that EMERGENT BIOSOLUT has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If EMERGENT BIOSOLUT stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if EMERGENT BIOSOLUT stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in EMERGENT BIOSOLUT stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT Lagged Returns
When evaluating EMERGENT BIOSOLUT's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of EMERGENT BIOSOLUT stock have on its future price. EMERGENT BIOSOLUT autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, EMERGENT BIOSOLUT autocorrelation shows the relationship between EMERGENT BIOSOLUT stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in EMERGENT BIOSOLUT.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in EMERGENT Stock
EMERGENT BIOSOLUT financial ratios help investors to determine whether EMERGENT Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in EMERGENT with respect to the benefits of owning EMERGENT BIOSOLUT security.