Commercial National Financial Stock Market Value

CEFC Stock  USD 10.13  0.07  0.69%   
Commercial National's market value is the price at which a share of Commercial National trades on a public exchange. It measures the collective expectations of Commercial National Financial investors about its performance. Commercial National is trading at 10.13 as of the 16th of March 2025, a 0.69% down since the beginning of the trading day. The stock's open price was 10.2.
With this module, you can estimate the performance of a buy and hold strategy of Commercial National Financial and determine expected loss or profit from investing in Commercial National over a given investment horizon. Check out Commercial National Correlation, Commercial National Volatility and Commercial National Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Commercial National.
Symbol

Please note, there is a significant difference between Commercial National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Commercial National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Commercial National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.

Commercial National 'What if' Analysis

In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Commercial National's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Commercial National.
0.00
02/14/2025
No Change 0.00  0.0 
In 31 days
03/16/2025
0.00
If you would invest  0.00  in Commercial National on February 14, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Commercial National Financial or generate 0.0% return on investment in Commercial National over 30 days. Commercial National is related to or competes with Eastern Michigan, Mifflinburg Bancorp, Apollo Bancorp, Community Bankers, Farmers Bank, CCSB Financial, and Bank of Utica. Commercial National Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Commercial Bank that provides various bank... More

Commercial National Upside/Downside Indicators

Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Commercial National's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Commercial National Financial upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.

Commercial National Market Risk Indicators

Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Commercial National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Commercial National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Commercial National historical prices to predict the future Commercial National's volatility.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.5310.3412.15
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
6.778.5810.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
8.2210.0311.84
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
9.8910.4411.00
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Commercial National. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Commercial National's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Commercial National's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Commercial National.

Commercial National Backtested Returns

At this point, Commercial National is not too volatile. Commercial National secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0151, which signifies that the company had a 0.0151 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found thirty technical indicators for Commercial National Financial, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Commercial National's Downside Deviation of 2.0, mean deviation of 1.22, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.062 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0271%. Commercial National has a performance score of 1 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.36, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Commercial National are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Commercial National is likely to outperform the market. Commercial National right now shows a risk of 1.79%. Please confirm Commercial National standard deviation, treynor ratio, downside variance, as well as the relationship between the total risk alpha and value at risk , to decide if Commercial National will be following its price patterns.

Auto-correlation

    
  -0.47  

Modest reverse predictability

Commercial National Financial has modest reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Commercial National time series from 14th of February 2025 to 1st of March 2025 and 1st of March 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Commercial National price movement. The serial correlation of -0.47 indicates that about 47.0% of current Commercial National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
Correlation Coefficient-0.47
Spearman Rank Test-0.67
Residual Average0.0
Price Variance0.08

Commercial National lagged returns against current returns

Autocorrelation, which is Commercial National pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Commercial National's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Commercial National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Commercial National has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
   Current and Lagged Values   
       Timeline  

Commercial National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices

Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Commercial National pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Commercial National pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Commercial National pink sheet over time.
   Current vs Lagged Prices   
       Timeline  

Commercial National Lagged Returns

When evaluating Commercial National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Commercial National pink sheet have on its future price. Commercial National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Commercial National autocorrelation shows the relationship between Commercial National pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Commercial National Financial.
   Regressed Prices   
       Timeline  

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Commercial Pink Sheet

Commercial National financial ratios help investors to determine whether Commercial Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Commercial with respect to the benefits of owning Commercial National security.