Commercial National Financial Stock Market Value
| CEFC Stock | USD 10.86 0.09 0.82% |
| Symbol | Commercial |
Commercial National 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Commercial National's pink sheet what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Commercial National.
| 03/12/2023 |
| 03/01/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Commercial National on March 12, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Commercial National Financial or generate 0.0% return on investment in Commercial National over 720 days. Commercial National is related to or competes with Eastern Michigan, Mifflinburg Bancorp, Apollo Bancorp, Community Bankers, Farmers Bank, CCSB Financial, and Bank of Utica. Commercial National Financial Corporation operates as the holding company for Commercial Bank that provides various bank... More
Commercial National Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Commercial National's pink sheet current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Commercial National Financial upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.31 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1493 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 10.33 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.33) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.94 |
Commercial National Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Commercial National's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Commercial National's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Commercial National historical prices to predict the future Commercial National's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1098 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.225 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.28 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1086 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.99) |
Commercial National Backtested Returns
Commercial National appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Commercial National secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.14, which signifies that the company had a 0.14 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-seven technical indicators for Commercial National Financial, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please makes use of Commercial National's Mean Deviation of 0.9556, downside deviation of 2.31, and Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1098 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Commercial National holds a performance score of 11. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.11, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Commercial National are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Commercial National is likely to outperform the market. Please check Commercial National's treynor ratio, downside variance, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and value at risk , to make a quick decision on whether Commercial National's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.09 |
Virtually no predictability
Commercial National Financial has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Commercial National time series from 12th of March 2023 to 6th of March 2024 and 6th of March 2024 to 1st of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Commercial National price movement. The serial correlation of 0.09 indicates that less than 9.0% of current Commercial National price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.09 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.15 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.44 |
Commercial National lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Commercial National pink sheet's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Commercial National's pink sheet expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Commercial National returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Commercial National has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the pink sheet is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Commercial National regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Commercial National pink sheet is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Commercial National pink sheet is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Commercial National pink sheet over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Commercial National Lagged Returns
When evaluating Commercial National's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Commercial National pink sheet have on its future price. Commercial National autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Commercial National autocorrelation shows the relationship between Commercial National pink sheet current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Commercial National Financial.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Commercial Pink Sheet
Commercial National financial ratios help investors to determine whether Commercial Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Commercial with respect to the benefits of owning Commercial National security.