Carlsberg (Germany) Market Value
| CBGA Stock | EUR 109.50 3.00 2.67% |
| Symbol | Carlsberg |
Carlsberg 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Carlsberg's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Carlsberg.
| 11/26/2024 |
| 12/26/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Carlsberg on November 26, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Carlsberg AS or generate 0.0% return on investment in Carlsberg over 30 days. Carlsberg is related to or competes with FOMECONMEXSAB DCV, Heineken, HEINEKEN, Ambev SA, Heineken Holding, Carlsberg, and Carlsberg. Carlsberg AS produces and sells beer and other beverage products in Western Europe, Eastern Europe, and Asia More
Carlsberg Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Carlsberg's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Carlsberg AS upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.23) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.58 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.09) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.48 |
Carlsberg Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Carlsberg's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Carlsberg's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Carlsberg historical prices to predict the future Carlsberg's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.16) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.38) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.45) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.09) |
Carlsberg AS Backtested Returns
Carlsberg AS secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.23, which signifies that the company had a -0.23% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Carlsberg AS exposes twenty-four different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Carlsberg's Standard Deviation of 1.77, risk adjusted performance of (0.16), and Mean Deviation of 1.42 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.34, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Carlsberg's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Carlsberg is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Carlsberg AS has a negative expected return of -0.4%. Please make sure to confirm Carlsberg's treynor ratio, value at risk, skewness, as well as the relationship between the maximum drawdown and potential upside , to decide if Carlsberg AS performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.30 |
Below average predictability
Carlsberg AS has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Carlsberg time series from 26th of November 2024 to 11th of December 2024 and 11th of December 2024 to 26th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Carlsberg AS price movement. The serial correlation of 0.3 indicates that nearly 30.0% of current Carlsberg price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.3 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.28 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.47 |
Carlsberg AS lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Carlsberg stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Carlsberg's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Carlsberg returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Carlsberg has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Carlsberg regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Carlsberg stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Carlsberg stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Carlsberg stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Carlsberg Lagged Returns
When evaluating Carlsberg's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Carlsberg stock have on its future price. Carlsberg autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Carlsberg autocorrelation shows the relationship between Carlsberg stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Carlsberg AS.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Carlsberg Stock
Carlsberg financial ratios help investors to determine whether Carlsberg Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Carlsberg with respect to the benefits of owning Carlsberg security.