BP Plc (Germany) Market Value
| BSU Stock | 28.40 0.20 0.70% |
| Symbol | BSU |
BP Plc 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to BP Plc's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of BP Plc.
| 06/17/2024 |
| 12/14/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in BP Plc on June 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding BP plc or generate 0.0% return on investment in BP Plc over 180 days. BP Plc is related to or competes with Cogent Communications, Consolidated Communications, Marie Brizard, Air Lease, WILLIS LEASE, Gamma Communications, and Computer. More
BP Plc Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure BP Plc's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess BP plc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 1.92 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.05) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 6.2 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.30) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.13 |
BP Plc Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for BP Plc's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as BP Plc's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use BP Plc historical prices to predict the future BP Plc's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0136 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.0021 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.19) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1221 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BP Plc's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BP plc Backtested Returns
Currently, BP plc is very steady. BP plc retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of 0.0112, which signifies that the company had a 0.0112% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for BP Plc, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm BP Plc's Standard Deviation of 1.6, coefficient of variation of 8892.43, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1321 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0179%. The firm owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of 0.065, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, BP Plc's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding BP Plc is expected to be smaller as well. BP plc today owns a risk of 1.6%. Please confirm BP plc value at risk, daily balance of power, and the relationship between the total risk alpha and expected short fall , to decide if BP plc will be following its current price history.
Auto-correlation | 0.30 |
Below average predictability
BP plc has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between BP Plc time series from 17th of June 2024 to 15th of September 2024 and 15th of September 2024 to 14th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of BP plc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.3 indicates that nearly 30.0% of current BP Plc price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.3 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.38 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.62 |
BP plc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is BP Plc stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting BP Plc's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of BP Plc returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that BP Plc has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
BP Plc regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If BP Plc stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if BP Plc stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in BP Plc stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
BP Plc Lagged Returns
When evaluating BP Plc's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of BP Plc stock have on its future price. BP Plc autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, BP Plc autocorrelation shows the relationship between BP Plc stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in BP plc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Tools for BSU Stock Analysis
When running BP Plc's price analysis, check to measure BP Plc's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BP Plc is operating at the current time. Most of BP Plc's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BP Plc's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BP Plc's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BP Plc to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.