Banco Comercial (Portugal) Market Value
| BCP Stock | EUR 0.45 0.01 2.27% |
| Symbol | Banco |
Banco Comercial 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Banco Comercial's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Banco Comercial.
| 06/03/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Banco Comercial on June 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Banco Comercial Portugues or generate 0.0% return on investment in Banco Comercial over 180 days. Banco Comercial is related to or competes with Sonae SGPS, Galp Energia, EDP Energias, and Altri SGPS. More
Banco Comercial Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Banco Comercial's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Banco Comercial Portugues upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.68 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.01) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 11.75 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.44) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.5 |
Banco Comercial Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Banco Comercial's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Banco Comercial's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Banco Comercial historical prices to predict the future Banco Comercial's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0527 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.174 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.23) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.25) |
Banco Comercial Portugues Backtested Returns
Currently, Banco Comercial Portugues is abnormally volatile. Banco Comercial Portugues secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0611, which signifies that the company had a 0.0611% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Banco Comercial Portugues, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Banco Comercial's Mean Deviation of 1.25, risk adjusted performance of 0.0527, and Downside Deviation of 2.68 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.13%. Banco Comercial has a performance score of 4 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.46, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Banco Comercial are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Banco Comercial is likely to outperform the market. Banco Comercial Portugues right now shows a risk of 2.08%. Please confirm Banco Comercial Portugues maximum drawdown, semi variance, and the relationship between the sortino ratio and potential upside , to decide if Banco Comercial Portugues will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.63 |
Good predictability
Banco Comercial Portugues has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Banco Comercial time series from 3rd of June 2024 to 1st of September 2024 and 1st of September 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Banco Comercial Portugues price movement. The serial correlation of 0.63 indicates that roughly 63.0% of current Banco Comercial price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.63 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.76 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.0 |
Banco Comercial Portugues lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Banco Comercial stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Banco Comercial's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Banco Comercial returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Banco Comercial has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Banco Comercial regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Banco Comercial stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Banco Comercial stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Banco Comercial stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Banco Comercial Lagged Returns
When evaluating Banco Comercial's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Banco Comercial stock have on its future price. Banco Comercial autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Banco Comercial autocorrelation shows the relationship between Banco Comercial stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Banco Comercial Portugues.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Banco Stock Analysis
When running Banco Comercial's price analysis, check to measure Banco Comercial's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Banco Comercial is operating at the current time. Most of Banco Comercial's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Banco Comercial's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Banco Comercial's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Banco Comercial to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.