Avia Avian (Indonesia) Market Value
| AVIA Stock | 406.00 4.00 0.98% |
| Symbol | Avia |
Avia Avian 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Avia Avian's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Avia Avian.
| 12/18/2024 |
| 03/18/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Avia Avian on December 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Avia Avian PT or generate 0.0% return on investment in Avia Avian over 90 days. Avia Avian is related to or competes with Dayamitra Telekomunikasi, Cisarua Mountain, PT Bukalapak, Sumber Alfaria, and Adaro Minerals. More
Avia Avian Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Avia Avian's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Avia Avian PT upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.44 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.049 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 13.94 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.50) | |||
| Potential Upside | 2.9 |
Avia Avian Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Avia Avian's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Avia Avian's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Avia Avian historical prices to predict the future Avia Avian's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0098 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.2765 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0444 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0028 |
Avia Avian PT Backtested Returns
As of now, Avia Stock is very steady. Avia Avian PT secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0744, which signifies that the company had a 0.0744 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Avia Avian PT, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Avia Avian's Downside Deviation of 2.44, risk adjusted performance of 0.0098, and Mean Deviation of 1.59 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.17%. Avia Avian has a performance score of 5 on a scale of 0 to 100. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.21, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Avia Avian are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Avia Avian is likely to outperform the market. Avia Avian PT right now shows a risk of 2.28%. Please confirm Avia Avian PT downside deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if Avia Avian PT will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.68 |
Very good reverse predictability
Avia Avian PT has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Avia Avian time series from 18th of December 2024 to 1st of February 2025 and 1st of February 2025 to 18th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Avia Avian PT price movement. The serial correlation of -0.68 indicates that around 68.0% of current Avia Avian price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.68 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.0 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 409.48 |
Avia Avian PT lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Avia Avian stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Avia Avian's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Avia Avian returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Avia Avian has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Avia Avian regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Avia Avian stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Avia Avian stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Avia Avian stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Avia Avian Lagged Returns
When evaluating Avia Avian's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Avia Avian stock have on its future price. Avia Avian autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Avia Avian autocorrelation shows the relationship between Avia Avian stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Avia Avian PT.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Avia Avian financial ratios help investors to determine whether Avia Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Avia with respect to the benefits of owning Avia Avian security.