PT Cilacap (Indonesia) Market Value
| ASHA Stock | 12.00 1.00 9.09% |
| Symbol | ASHA |
PT Cilacap 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to PT Cilacap's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of PT Cilacap.
| 11/12/2024 |
| 12/12/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in PT Cilacap on November 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding PT Cilacap Samudera or generate 0.0% return on investment in PT Cilacap over 30 days. PT Cilacap is related to or competes with PT Dewi, Adaro Minerals, Autopedia Sukses, Wir Asia, and PT Arkora. More
PT Cilacap Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure PT Cilacap's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess PT Cilacap Samudera upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.04) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 17.42 | |||
| Value At Risk | (7.69) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.33 |
PT Cilacap Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for PT Cilacap's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as PT Cilacap's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use PT Cilacap historical prices to predict the future PT Cilacap's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.01) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.02) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.84) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.1275 |
PT Cilacap Samudera Backtested Returns
PT Cilacap Samudera retains Efficiency (Sharpe Ratio) of -0.0454, which implies the firm had a -0.0454% return per unit of price deviation over the last 3 months. PT Cilacap exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check PT Cilacap's information ratio of (0.04), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.1375 to confirm the risk estimate we provide. The company owns a Beta (Systematic Risk) of -0.88, which implies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As the market becomes more bullish, returns on owning PT Cilacap are expected to decrease slowly. On the other hand, during market turmoil, PT Cilacap is expected to outperform it slightly. At this point, PT Cilacap Samudera has a negative expected return of -0.23%. Please make sure to check PT Cilacap's market risk adjusted performance, coefficient of variation, information ratio, as well as the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if PT Cilacap Samudera performance from the past will be repeated at some future date.
Auto-correlation | 0.07 |
Virtually no predictability
PT Cilacap Samudera has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between PT Cilacap time series from 12th of November 2024 to 27th of November 2024 and 27th of November 2024 to 12th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of PT Cilacap Samudera price movement. The serial correlation of 0.07 indicates that barely 7.0% of current PT Cilacap price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.07 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.44 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.23 |
PT Cilacap Samudera lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is PT Cilacap stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting PT Cilacap's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of PT Cilacap returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that PT Cilacap has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
PT Cilacap regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If PT Cilacap stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if PT Cilacap stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in PT Cilacap stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
PT Cilacap Lagged Returns
When evaluating PT Cilacap's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of PT Cilacap stock have on its future price. PT Cilacap autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, PT Cilacap autocorrelation shows the relationship between PT Cilacap stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in PT Cilacap Samudera.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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PT Cilacap financial ratios help investors to determine whether ASHA Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ASHA with respect to the benefits of owning PT Cilacap security.