Argha Karya (Indonesia) Market Value
| AKPI Stock | IDR 590.00 5.00 0.85% |
| Symbol | Argha |
Argha Karya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Argha Karya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Argha Karya.
| 01/01/2025 |
| 03/02/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Argha Karya on January 1, 2025 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Argha Karya Prima or generate 0.0% return on investment in Argha Karya over 60 days. Argha Karya is related to or competes with Asiaplast Industries, Alumindo Light, Berlina Tbk, Anugerah Kagum, and Alakasa Industrindo. More
Argha Karya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Argha Karya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Argha Karya Prima upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.16 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.0094 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 9.07 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.23) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.24 |
Argha Karya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Argha Karya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Argha Karya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Argha Karya historical prices to predict the future Argha Karya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0086 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.01) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.06 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.0089 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0137 |
Argha Karya Prima Backtested Returns
As of now, Argha Stock is very steady. Argha Karya Prima secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of close to zero, which signifies that the company had a close to zero % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-nine technical indicators for Argha Karya Prima, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the firm. Please confirm Argha Karya's risk adjusted performance of 0.0086, and Mean Deviation of 1.62 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0062%. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.28, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Argha Karya are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Argha Karya is likely to outperform the market. Argha Karya Prima right now shows a risk of 2.04%. Please confirm Argha Karya Prima coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Argha Karya Prima will be following its price patterns.
Auto-correlation | -0.31 |
Poor reverse predictability
Argha Karya Prima has poor reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Argha Karya time series from 1st of January 2025 to 31st of January 2025 and 31st of January 2025 to 2nd of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Argha Karya Prima price movement. The serial correlation of -0.31 indicates that nearly 31.0% of current Argha Karya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.31 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 62.05 |
Argha Karya Prima lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Argha Karya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Argha Karya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Argha Karya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Argha Karya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Argha Karya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Argha Karya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Argha Karya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Argha Karya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Argha Karya Lagged Returns
When evaluating Argha Karya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Argha Karya stock have on its future price. Argha Karya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Argha Karya autocorrelation shows the relationship between Argha Karya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Argha Karya Prima.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Argha Karya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Argha Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Argha with respect to the benefits of owning Argha Karya security.