Air Link (Pakistan) Market Value
| AIRLINK Stock | 189.43 1.45 0.77% |
| Symbol | Air |
Air Link 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Air Link's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Air Link.
| 12/24/2022 |
| 12/13/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Air Link on December 24, 2022 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Air Link Communication or generate 0.0% return on investment in Air Link over 720 days.
Air Link Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Air Link's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Air Link Communication upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.79 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1417 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 20.0 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.64) | |||
| Potential Upside | 7.43 |
Air Link Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Air Link's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Air Link's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Air Link historical prices to predict the future Air Link's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1343 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5822 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1072 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.1759 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 6.17 |
Air Link Communication Backtested Returns
Air Link appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Air Link Communication secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.18, which signifies that the company had a 0.18% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By analyzing Air Link's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.64% is justified by implied risk. Please makes use of Air Link's Downside Deviation of 2.79, risk adjusted performance of 0.1343, and Mean Deviation of 2.49 to double-check if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Air Link holds a performance score of 14. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0959, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Air Link's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Air Link is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Air Link's treynor ratio, kurtosis, relative strength index, as well as the relationship between the downside variance and day median price , to make a quick decision on whether Air Link's price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.62 |
Good predictability
Air Link Communication has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Air Link time series from 24th of December 2022 to 19th of December 2023 and 19th of December 2023 to 13th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Air Link Communication price movement. The serial correlation of 0.62 indicates that roughly 62.0% of current Air Link price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.62 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.46 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 1308.08 |
Air Link Communication lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Air Link stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Air Link's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Air Link returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Air Link has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Air Link regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Air Link stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Air Link stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Air Link stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Air Link Lagged Returns
When evaluating Air Link's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Air Link stock have on its future price. Air Link autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Air Link autocorrelation shows the relationship between Air Link stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Air Link Communication.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Pair Trading with Air Link
One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Air Link position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Air Link will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.The ability to find closely correlated positions to Air Link could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Air Link when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Air Link - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Air Link Communication to buy it.
The correlation of Air Link is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Air Link moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Air Link Communication moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Air Link can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.