Ginnie Mae Fund Market Value
| AGMWX Fund | USD 8.75 0.01 0.11% |
| Symbol | Ginnie |
Ginnie Mae 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ginnie Mae's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ginnie Mae.
| 01/16/2023 |
| 01/05/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ginnie Mae on January 16, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ginnie Mae Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ginnie Mae over 720 days. Ginnie Mae is related to or competes with Short Real, Simt Real, Tiaa Cref, Amg Managers, Rems Real, and Vanguard Reit. The investment seeks high current income while maintaining liquidity and safety of principal by investing primarily in G... More
Ginnie Mae Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ginnie Mae's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ginnie Mae Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.21) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 1.59 | |||
| Value At Risk | (0.56) | |||
| Potential Upside | 0.3429 |
Ginnie Mae Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ginnie Mae's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ginnie Mae's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ginnie Mae historical prices to predict the future Ginnie Mae's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.13) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.06) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (1.45) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ginnie Mae's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ginnie Mae Fund Backtested Returns
Ginnie Mae Fund holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of -0.14, which attests that the entity had a -0.14% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Ginnie Mae Fund exposes twenty-one different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please check out Ginnie Mae's Standard Deviation of 0.3043, risk adjusted performance of (0.13), and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of (1.44) to validate the risk estimate we provide. The fund retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.0362, which attests to not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Ginnie Mae's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ginnie Mae is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | -0.61 |
Very good reverse predictability
Ginnie Mae Fund has very good reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ginnie Mae time series from 16th of January 2023 to 11th of January 2024 and 11th of January 2024 to 5th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ginnie Mae Fund price movement. The serial correlation of -0.61 indicates that roughly 61.0% of current Ginnie Mae price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.61 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.37 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.03 |
Ginnie Mae Fund lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ginnie Mae mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ginnie Mae's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ginnie Mae returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ginnie Mae has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ginnie Mae regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ginnie Mae mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ginnie Mae mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ginnie Mae mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ginnie Mae Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ginnie Mae's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ginnie Mae mutual fund have on its future price. Ginnie Mae autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ginnie Mae autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ginnie Mae mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ginnie Mae Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Other Information on Investing in Ginnie Mutual Fund
Ginnie Mae financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ginnie Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ginnie with respect to the benefits of owning Ginnie Mae security.
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