Ariel Global Fund Market Value
| AGLYX Fund | USD 16.30 0.07 0.43% |
| Symbol | Ariel |
Ariel Global 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Ariel Global's mutual fund what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Ariel Global.
| 06/03/2024 |
| 11/30/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Ariel Global on June 3, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Ariel Global Fund or generate 0.0% return on investment in Ariel Global over 180 days. Ariel Global is related to or competes with Ariel Fund, Ariel Focus, Ariel Fund, Ariel Focus, Ariel Global, Ariel International, and Ariel International. The fund invests primarily in equity securities of both U.S More
Ariel Global Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Ariel Global's mutual fund current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Ariel Global Fund upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 0.6883 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 2.83 | |||
| Value At Risk | (1.12) | |||
| Potential Upside | 1.21 |
Ariel Global Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Ariel Global's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Ariel Global's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Ariel Global historical prices to predict the future Ariel Global's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0383 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.05) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.0442 |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Ariel Global's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Ariel Global Backtested Returns
At this stage we consider Ariel Mutual Fund to be very steady. Ariel Global secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of 0.0805, which signifies that the fund had a 0.0805% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Ariel Global Fund, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the entity. Please confirm Ariel Global's Mean Deviation of 0.5317, risk adjusted performance of 0.0383, and Downside Deviation of 0.6883 to double-check if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.0528%. The fund shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.57, which signifies possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Ariel Global's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Ariel Global is expected to be smaller as well.
Auto-correlation | 0.31 |
Below average predictability
Ariel Global Fund has below average predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Ariel Global time series from 3rd of June 2024 to 1st of September 2024 and 1st of September 2024 to 30th of November 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Ariel Global price movement. The serial correlation of 0.31 indicates that nearly 31.0% of current Ariel Global price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.31 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.36 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.08 |
Ariel Global lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Ariel Global mutual fund's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Ariel Global's mutual fund expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Ariel Global returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Ariel Global has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the mutual fund is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Ariel Global regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Ariel Global mutual fund is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Ariel Global mutual fund is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Ariel Global mutual fund over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Ariel Global Lagged Returns
When evaluating Ariel Global's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Ariel Global mutual fund have on its future price. Ariel Global autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Ariel Global autocorrelation shows the relationship between Ariel Global mutual fund current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Ariel Global Fund.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Ariel Mutual Fund
Ariel Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ariel Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ariel with respect to the benefits of owning Ariel Global security.
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