Adaro Energy (Indonesia) Market Value
| ADRO Stock | IDR 1,795 15.00 0.83% |
| Symbol | Adaro |
Adaro Energy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Adaro Energy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Adaro Energy.
| 12/18/2024 |
| 03/18/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Adaro Energy on December 18, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Adaro Energy Tbk or generate 0.0% return on investment in Adaro Energy over 90 days. Adaro Energy is related to or competes with Bukit Asam, Aneka Tambang, Perusahaan Gas, Indo Tambangraya, and Astra International. PT Adaro Energy Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated coal mining and energy company in Indones... More
Adaro Energy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Adaro Energy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Adaro Energy Tbk upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.06) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 23.35 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.11) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.12 |
Adaro Energy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Adaro Energy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Adaro Energy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Adaro Energy historical prices to predict the future Adaro Energy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.07) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.31) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.0981 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 2.21 |
Adaro Energy Tbk Backtested Returns
Adaro Energy Tbk secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.23, which signifies that the company had a -0.23 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Adaro Energy Tbk exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Adaro Energy's risk adjusted performance of (0.07), and Mean Deviation of 2.06 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.13, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Adaro Energy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Adaro Energy is likely to outperform the market. At this point, Adaro Energy Tbk has a negative expected return of -0.54%. Please make sure to confirm Adaro Energy's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the mean deviation and standard deviation , to decide if Adaro Energy Tbk performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.69 |
Good predictability
Adaro Energy Tbk has good predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Adaro Energy time series from 18th of December 2024 to 1st of February 2025 and 1st of February 2025 to 18th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Adaro Energy Tbk price movement. The serial correlation of 0.69 indicates that around 69.0% of current Adaro Energy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.69 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.69 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 19.6 K |
Adaro Energy Tbk lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Adaro Energy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Adaro Energy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Adaro Energy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Adaro Energy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Adaro Energy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Adaro Energy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Adaro Energy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Adaro Energy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Adaro Energy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Adaro Energy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Adaro Energy stock have on its future price. Adaro Energy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Adaro Energy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Adaro Energy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Adaro Energy Tbk.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Adaro Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Adaro Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Adaro with respect to the benefits of owning Adaro Energy security.