Adhi Karya (Indonesia) Market Value
| ADHI Stock | IDR 173.00 2.00 1.14% |
| Symbol | Adhi |
Adhi Karya 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Adhi Karya's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Adhi Karya.
| 12/17/2024 |
| 03/17/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Adhi Karya on December 17, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Adhi Karya Persero or generate 0.0% return on investment in Adhi Karya over 90 days. Adhi Karya is related to or competes with Wijaya Karya, Waskita Karya, Pembangunan Perumahan, Jasa Marga, and Perusahaan Gas. PT Adhi Karya Tbk primarily engages in the construction business in Indonesia More
Adhi Karya Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Adhi Karya's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Adhi Karya Persero upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.15) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 15.4 | |||
| Value At Risk | (4.92) | |||
| Potential Upside | 6.47 |
Adhi Karya Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Adhi Karya's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Adhi Karya's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Adhi Karya historical prices to predict the future Adhi Karya's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.15) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.55) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.18) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (14.29) |
Adhi Karya Persero Backtested Returns
Adhi Karya Persero secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.17, which signifies that the company had a -0.17 % return per unit of standard deviation over the last 3 months. Adhi Karya Persero exposes twenty-two different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Adhi Karya's risk adjusted performance of (0.15), and Mean Deviation of 2.0 to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.0387, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, Adhi Karya's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Adhi Karya is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Adhi Karya Persero has a negative expected return of -0.53%. Please make sure to confirm Adhi Karya's coefficient of variation, information ratio, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the standard deviation and jensen alpha , to decide if Adhi Karya Persero performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.04 |
Virtually no predictability
Adhi Karya Persero has virtually no predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Adhi Karya time series from 17th of December 2024 to 31st of January 2025 and 31st of January 2025 to 17th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Adhi Karya Persero price movement. The serial correlation of 0.04 indicates that only as little as 4.0% of current Adhi Karya price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.04 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.17 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 152.54 |
Adhi Karya Persero lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Adhi Karya stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Adhi Karya's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Adhi Karya returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Adhi Karya has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Adhi Karya regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Adhi Karya stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Adhi Karya stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Adhi Karya stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Adhi Karya Lagged Returns
When evaluating Adhi Karya's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Adhi Karya stock have on its future price. Adhi Karya autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Adhi Karya autocorrelation shows the relationship between Adhi Karya stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Adhi Karya Persero.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Adhi Karya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Adhi Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Adhi with respect to the benefits of owning Adhi Karya security.