Juneyao Airlines (China) Market Value
| 603885 Stock | 15.01 0.34 2.32% |
| Symbol | Juneyao |
Juneyao Airlines 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Juneyao Airlines' stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Juneyao Airlines.
| 09/12/2024 |
| 12/11/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Juneyao Airlines on September 12, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Juneyao Airlines or generate 0.0% return on investment in Juneyao Airlines over 90 days. Juneyao Airlines is related to or competes with Agricultural Bank, Industrial, Bank of China, PetroChina, and Postal Savings. Juneyao Airlines is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
Juneyao Airlines Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Juneyao Airlines' stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Juneyao Airlines upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.13 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1556 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 16.84 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.87) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.71 |
Juneyao Airlines Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Juneyao Airlines' investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Juneyao Airlines' standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Juneyao Airlines historical prices to predict the future Juneyao Airlines' volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1502 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.5405 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1059 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2169 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.82 |
Juneyao Airlines Backtested Returns
Juneyao Airlines appears to be not too volatile, given 3 months investment horizon. Juneyao Airlines holds Efficiency (Sharpe) Ratio of 0.24, which attests that the entity had a 0.24% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By evaluating Juneyao Airlines' technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.73% is justified by implied risk. Please utilize Juneyao Airlines' Downside Deviation of 2.13, risk adjusted performance of 0.1502, and Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 1.83 to validate if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Juneyao Airlines holds a performance score of 18. The company retains a Market Volatility (i.e., Beta) of 0.32, which attests to possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Juneyao Airlines' returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Juneyao Airlines is expected to be smaller as well. Please check Juneyao Airlines' information ratio, total risk alpha, and the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Juneyao Airlines' current trending patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.56 |
Modest predictability
Juneyao Airlines has modest predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Juneyao Airlines time series from 12th of September 2024 to 27th of October 2024 and 27th of October 2024 to 11th of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Juneyao Airlines price movement. The serial correlation of 0.56 indicates that roughly 56.0% of current Juneyao Airlines price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.56 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.67 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.36 |
Juneyao Airlines lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Juneyao Airlines stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Juneyao Airlines' stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Juneyao Airlines returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Juneyao Airlines has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Juneyao Airlines regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Juneyao Airlines stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Juneyao Airlines stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Juneyao Airlines stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Juneyao Airlines Lagged Returns
When evaluating Juneyao Airlines' market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Juneyao Airlines stock have on its future price. Juneyao Airlines autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Juneyao Airlines autocorrelation shows the relationship between Juneyao Airlines stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Juneyao Airlines.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in Juneyao Stock
Juneyao Airlines financial ratios help investors to determine whether Juneyao Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Juneyao with respect to the benefits of owning Juneyao Airlines security.