AVIC Heavy (China) Market Value
| 600765 Stock | 18.68 0.10 0.53% |
| Symbol | AVIC |
AVIC Heavy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to AVIC Heavy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of AVIC Heavy.
| 12/16/2024 |
| 03/16/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in AVIC Heavy on December 16, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding AVIC Heavy Machinery or generate 0.0% return on investment in AVIC Heavy over 90 days. AVIC Heavy is related to or competes with Hengli Petrochemical, Liuzhou Chemical, Xiangtan Electrochemical, Changchun Engley, Nantong JiangTian, Jiangsu Xinri, and HeBei Jinniu. AVIC Heavy is entity of China. It is traded as Stock on SHG exchange. More
AVIC Heavy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure AVIC Heavy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess AVIC Heavy Machinery upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | 0.0144 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 7.82 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.83) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.07 |
AVIC Heavy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for AVIC Heavy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as AVIC Heavy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use AVIC Heavy historical prices to predict the future AVIC Heavy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.09) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1365 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 1.95 |
AVIC Heavy Machinery Backtested Returns
AVIC Heavy Machinery secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0568, which signifies that the company had a -0.0568 % return per unit of return volatility over the last 3 months. AVIC Heavy Machinery exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm AVIC Heavy's Coefficient Of Variation of (2,386), mean deviation of 1.36, and Risk Adjusted Performance of (0.03) to double-check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of -0.043, which signifies not very significant fluctuations relative to the market. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning AVIC Heavy are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, AVIC Heavy is likely to outperform the market. At this point, AVIC Heavy Machinery has a negative expected return of -0.0977%. Please make sure to confirm AVIC Heavy's mean deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to decide if AVIC Heavy Machinery performance from the past will be repeated in the future.
Auto-correlation | -0.05 |
Very weak reverse predictability
AVIC Heavy Machinery has very weak reverse predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between AVIC Heavy time series from 16th of December 2024 to 30th of January 2025 and 30th of January 2025 to 16th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of AVIC Heavy Machinery price movement. The serial correlation of -0.05 indicates that only as little as 5.0% of current AVIC Heavy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | -0.05 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.07 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.39 |
AVIC Heavy Machinery lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is AVIC Heavy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting AVIC Heavy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of AVIC Heavy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that AVIC Heavy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
AVIC Heavy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If AVIC Heavy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if AVIC Heavy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in AVIC Heavy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
AVIC Heavy Lagged Returns
When evaluating AVIC Heavy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of AVIC Heavy stock have on its future price. AVIC Heavy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, AVIC Heavy autocorrelation shows the relationship between AVIC Heavy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in AVIC Heavy Machinery.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Other Information on Investing in AVIC Stock
AVIC Heavy financial ratios help investors to determine whether AVIC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in AVIC with respect to the benefits of owning AVIC Heavy security.