Etsy (Germany) Market Value
| 3E2 Stock | 46.69 0.30 0.64% |
| Symbol | Etsy |
Etsy 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Etsy's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Etsy.
| 03/16/2023 |
| 03/05/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Etsy on March 16, 2023 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Etsy Inc or generate 0.0% return on investment in Etsy over 720 days. Etsy is related to or competes with Jupiter Fund, CLOVER HEALTH, Perdoceo Education, Sims Metal, and UNIDOC HEALTH. More
Etsy Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Etsy's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Etsy Inc upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Information Ratio | (0.02) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 22.59 | |||
| Value At Risk | (3.97) | |||
| Potential Upside | 3.79 |
Etsy Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Etsy's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Etsy's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Etsy historical prices to predict the future Etsy's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | (0.03) | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.13) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.1782 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.43) |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Etsy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Etsy Inc Backtested Returns
Etsy Inc secures Sharpe Ratio (or Efficiency) of -0.0688, which denotes the company had a -0.0688 % return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. Etsy Inc exposes twenty-three different technical indicators, which can help you to evaluate volatility embedded in its price movement. Please confirm Etsy's Standard Deviation of 2.92, variance of 8.55, and Mean Deviation of 2.0 to check the risk estimate we provide. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 0.36, which means possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, Etsy's returns are expected to increase less than the market. However, during the bear market, the loss of holding Etsy is expected to be smaller as well. At this point, Etsy Inc has a negative expected return of -0.2%. Please make sure to confirm Etsy's treynor ratio, skewness, rate of daily change, as well as the relationship between the value at risk and accumulation distribution , to decide if Etsy Inc performance from the past will be repeated at some point in the near future.
Auto-correlation | 0.90 |
Excellent predictability
Etsy Inc has excellent predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Etsy time series from 16th of March 2023 to 10th of March 2024 and 10th of March 2024 to 5th of March 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Etsy Inc price movement. The serial correlation of 0.9 indicates that approximately 90.0% of current Etsy price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.9 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | 0.6 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 27.61 |
Etsy Inc lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Etsy stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Etsy's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Etsy returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Etsy has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Etsy regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Etsy stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Etsy stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Etsy stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Etsy Lagged Returns
When evaluating Etsy's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Etsy stock have on its future price. Etsy autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Etsy autocorrelation shows the relationship between Etsy stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Etsy Inc.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Thematic Opportunities
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Additional Tools for Etsy Stock Analysis
When running Etsy's price analysis, check to measure Etsy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Etsy is operating at the current time. Most of Etsy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Etsy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Etsy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Etsy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.