Origin Agritech (Germany) Market Value
| 39O1 Stock | EUR 2.42 0.14 5.47% |
| Symbol | Origin |
Origin Agritech 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Origin Agritech's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Origin Agritech.
| 11/01/2024 |
| 12/01/2024 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Origin Agritech on November 1, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Origin Agritech or generate 0.0% return on investment in Origin Agritech over 30 days. Origin Agritech is related to or competes with Ryanair Holdings, MAVEN WIRELESS, Corporate Office, Air New, and 24SEVENOFFICE GROUP. More
Origin Agritech Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Origin Agritech's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Origin Agritech upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 3.86 | |||
| Information Ratio | (0) | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 24.06 | |||
| Value At Risk | (5.47) | |||
| Potential Upside | 8.41 |
Origin Agritech Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Origin Agritech's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Origin Agritech's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Origin Agritech historical prices to predict the future Origin Agritech's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.0278 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | (0.07) | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | (0.68) | |||
| Sortino Ratio | (0) | |||
| Treynor Ratio | 0.078 |
Origin Agritech Backtested Returns
At this point, Origin Agritech is very risky. Origin Agritech maintains Sharpe Ratio (i.e., Efficiency) of 0.0307, which implies the firm had a 0.0307% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. We have found twenty-eight technical indicators for Origin Agritech, which you can use to evaluate the volatility of the company. Please check Origin Agritech's Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0278, semi deviation of 3.5, and Coefficient Of Variation of 3943.34 to confirm if the risk estimate we provide is consistent with the expected return of 0.15%. Origin Agritech has a performance score of 2 on a scale of 0 to 100. The company holds a Beta of 1.41, which implies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Origin Agritech will likely underperform. Origin Agritech right now holds a risk of 4.73%. Please check Origin Agritech downside deviation, information ratio, and the relationship between the semi deviation and coefficient of variation , to decide if Origin Agritech will be following its historical price patterns.
Auto-correlation | 0.17 |
Very weak predictability
Origin Agritech has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Origin Agritech time series from 1st of November 2024 to 16th of November 2024 and 16th of November 2024 to 1st of December 2024. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Origin Agritech price movement. The serial correlation of 0.17 indicates that over 17.0% of current Origin Agritech price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.17 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.19 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 0.02 |
Origin Agritech lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Origin Agritech stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Origin Agritech's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Origin Agritech returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Origin Agritech has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Origin Agritech regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Origin Agritech stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Origin Agritech stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Origin Agritech stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
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Origin Agritech Lagged Returns
When evaluating Origin Agritech's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Origin Agritech stock have on its future price. Origin Agritech autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Origin Agritech autocorrelation shows the relationship between Origin Agritech stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Origin Agritech.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Origin Stock
When determining whether Origin Agritech is a strong investment it is important to analyze Origin Agritech's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Origin Agritech's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Origin Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Origin Agritech Correlation, Origin Agritech Volatility and Origin Agritech Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Origin Agritech. For more detail on how to invest in Origin Stock please use our How to Invest in Origin Agritech guide.You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
Origin Agritech technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.