Shopify (Germany) Market Value
| 307 Stock | EUR 105.46 2.22 2.06% |
| Symbol | Shopify |
Shopify 'What if' Analysis
In the world of financial modeling, what-if analysis is part of sensitivity analysis performed to test how changes in assumptions impact individual outputs in a model. When applied to Shopify's stock what-if analysis refers to the analyzing how the change in your past investing horizon will affect the profitability against the current market value of Shopify.
| 12/09/2024 |
| 01/08/2025 |
If you would invest 0.00 in Shopify on December 9, 2024 and sell it all today you would earn a total of 0.00 from holding Shopify or generate 0.0% return on investment in Shopify over 30 days. Shopify is related to or competes with Square, and Salesforce. Shopify Inc., a commerce company, provides a commerce platform and services in Canada, the United States, Europe, the Mi... More
Shopify Upside/Downside Indicators
Understanding different market momentum indicators often help investors to time their next move. Potential upside and downside technical ratios enable traders to measure Shopify's stock current market value against overall market sentiment and can be a good tool during both bulling and bearish trends. Here we outline some of the essential indicators to assess Shopify upside and downside potential and time the market with a certain degree of confidence.
| Downside Deviation | 2.21 | |||
| Information Ratio | 0.1602 | |||
| Maximum Drawdown | 29.93 | |||
| Value At Risk | (2.80) | |||
| Potential Upside | 4.23 |
Shopify Market Risk Indicators
Today, many novice investors tend to focus exclusively on investment returns with little concern for Shopify's investment risk. Other traders do consider volatility but use just one or two very conventional indicators such as Shopify's standard deviation. In reality, there are many statistical measures that can use Shopify historical prices to predict the future Shopify's volatility.| Risk Adjusted Performance | 0.1389 | |||
| Jensen Alpha | 0.6156 | |||
| Total Risk Alpha | 0.6186 | |||
| Sortino Ratio | 0.2786 | |||
| Treynor Ratio | (0.97) |
Shopify Backtested Returns
Shopify appears to be very steady, given 3 months investment horizon. Shopify owns Efficiency Ratio (i.e., Sharpe Ratio) of 0.16, which indicates the firm had a 0.16% return per unit of risk over the last 3 months. By inspecting Shopify's technical indicators, you can evaluate if the expected return of 0.63% is justified by implied risk. Please review Shopify's Coefficient Of Variation of 614.76, risk adjusted performance of 0.1389, and Semi Deviation of 1.73 to confirm if our risk estimates are consistent with your expectations. On a scale of 0 to 100, Shopify holds a performance score of 12. The entity has a beta of -0.63, which indicates possible diversification benefits within a given portfolio. As returns on the market increase, returns on owning Shopify are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During the bear market, Shopify is likely to outperform the market. Please check Shopify's downside deviation, standard deviation, total risk alpha, as well as the relationship between the coefficient of variation and jensen alpha , to make a quick decision on whether Shopify's existing price patterns will revert.
Auto-correlation | 0.19 |
Very weak predictability
Shopify has very weak predictability. Overlapping area represents the amount of predictability between Shopify time series from 9th of December 2024 to 24th of December 2024 and 24th of December 2024 to 8th of January 2025. The more autocorrelation exist between current time interval and its lagged values, the more accurately you can make projection about the future pattern of Shopify price movement. The serial correlation of 0.19 indicates that over 19.0% of current Shopify price fluctuation can be explain by its past prices.
| Correlation Coefficient | 0.19 | |
| Spearman Rank Test | -0.32 | |
| Residual Average | 0.0 | |
| Price Variance | 3.03 |
Shopify lagged returns against current returns
Autocorrelation, which is Shopify stock's lagged correlation, explains the relationship between observations of its time series of returns over different periods of time. The observations are said to be independent if autocorrelation is zero. Autocorrelation is calculated as a function of mean and variance and can have practical application in predicting Shopify's stock expected returns. We can calculate the autocorrelation of Shopify returns to help us make a trade decision. For example, suppose you find that Shopify has exhibited high autocorrelation historically, and you observe that the stock is moving up for the past few days. In that case, you can expect the price movement to match the lagging time series.
Current and Lagged Values |
| Timeline |
Shopify regressed lagged prices vs. current prices
Serial correlation can be approximated by using the Durbin-Watson (DW) test. The correlation can be either positive or negative. If Shopify stock is displaying a positive serial correlation, investors will expect a positive pattern to continue. However, if Shopify stock is observed to have a negative serial correlation, investors will generally project negative sentiment on having a locked-in long position in Shopify stock over time.
Current vs Lagged Prices |
| Timeline |
Shopify Lagged Returns
When evaluating Shopify's market value, investors can use the concept of autocorrelation to see how much of an impact past prices of Shopify stock have on its future price. Shopify autocorrelation represents the degree of similarity between a given time horizon and a lagged version of the same horizon over the previous time interval. In other words, Shopify autocorrelation shows the relationship between Shopify stock current value and its past values and can show if there is a momentum factor associated with investing in Shopify.
Regressed Prices |
| Timeline |
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Shopify Stock
When determining whether Shopify is a good investment, qualitative aspects like company management, corporate governance, and ethical practices play a significant role. A comparison with peer companies also provides context and helps to understand if Shopify Stock is undervalued or overvalued. This multi-faceted approach, blending both quantitative and qualitative analysis, forms a solid foundation for making an informed investment decision about Shopify Stock. Highlighted below are key reports to facilitate an investment decision about Shopify Stock:Check out Shopify Correlation, Shopify Volatility and Shopify Alpha and Beta module to complement your research on Shopify. For more detail on how to invest in Shopify Stock please use our How to Invest in Shopify guide.You can also try the Efficient Frontier module to plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market..
Shopify technical stock analysis exercises models and trading practices based on price and volume transformations, such as the moving averages, relative strength index, regressions, price and return correlations, business cycles, stock market cycles, or different charting patterns.