Is MTY riskier than Canada Goose Holdings (CA:GOOS)?

MTY Food Group, a prominent player in the Restaurants industry, presents a compelling case for investment when compared to Canada Goose Holdings. With a market capitalization of $1.5B and a current valuation of $2.82B, MTY Food Group's financial health appears robust. The company's retained earnings stand at $402.85M, and it boasts a net income applicable to common shares of $74.8M. This, coupled with an EBITDA of $184.6M, underscores the company's ability to generate profits. Despite a probability of bankruptcy at 39.96%, the company's beta of 1.8356 indicates a higher potential for returns, albeit with higher risk. MTY Food Group's total asset is $2.33B, including current assets of $55.22M and cash and equivalents of $55.29M. This, alongside a total revenue of $716.5M and gross profit of $602.1M, highlights the company's strong financial position. However, the company's current ratio of 0.64X and debt to equity ratio of 1.05% indicate potential liquidity and solvency issues. The company's shares are primarily held by institutions (32.12%) and insiders (19.44%), with 658.9K shares shorted. The company's price to earnings to growth is 1.02X, and its price to book value is 2.08X, suggesting that the stock may be undervalued. MTY Food Group's five-year return stands at 1.17%, with earnings per share at 3.13X. The company's operating margin is 0.17%, and its profit margin is 0.0888. The company's return on assets is 0.0401, and its return on equity is 0.11. Despite negative net interest income of $15.4M, the company has generated a cash flow from operations of $142.8M. In conclusion, while MTY Food Group presents certain financial risks, its strong profitability and potential for high returns make it an intriguing investment prospect when compared to Canada Goose Holdings. However, potential investors should carefully consider the company's liquidity and solvency issues before making an investment decision. As many prudent traders are steering clear of the consumer cyclical sector, it's logical to delve deeper into MTY Food Group. We'll compare it with Canada Goose and other similar companies. Our focus will be on certain competitive aspects of both MTY and Canada Goose.
Published over a year ago
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Reviewed by Gabriel Shpitalnik

By examining the fundamental indicators between MTY Food Group and the Canadian market, one can assess the impact of market volatility on the prices of both entities. This can help determine if they can mitigate market risk when combined in a single portfolio. Pair trading strategies can also be employed, matching a long position in the Canadian market with a short position in MTY Food Group. For more details, please refer to our pair correlation module. Let's start by examining the assets. The asset utilization indicator measures the revenue generated for every dollar of assets a company currently holds. MTY Food Group has an asset utilization ratio of 30.81 percent, indicating that the company generates CAD$0.31 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization ratio suggests that MTY Food Group is becoming more efficient in utilizing each dollar of assets in its daily operations.

Further analysis

Investing in MTY Food Group (MTY) presents an intriguing opportunity for investors. Despite a high probability of bankruptcy at 39.96%, the company has managed to maintain a strong net income of $75.2M and a gross profit of $602.1M from a revenue of $862M. The company's operating margin is a mere 0.17%, which may be a concern for potential investors. However, with a return on equity of 0.11 and a five-year return of 1.17%, MTY Food Group shows a steady performance. The company's current ratio stands at 0.64X, indicating a potential liquidity risk. In comparison, Canada Goose Holdings (CA:GOOS) might offer a safer investment option for risk-averse investors.
Investment perspective, in general, refers to a viewpoint or opinion regarding investment opportunity in MTY Food. It encompasses the assessment of an investment's potential risks and rewards, and expectations for its performance over time. Several factors influence the investment perspective on MTY Food, including investment goals, risk tolerance, time horizon, market conditions, and research and analysis. Investors have varying goals, such as capital preservation, income generation, or long-term growth. Risk tolerance plays a significant role in shaping an investor's perspective, with some being more risk-averse and others willing to take on higher risks for potential returns.

How important is MTY Food's Liquidity

MTY Food financial leverage refers to using borrowed capital as a funding source to finance MTY Food Group ongoing operations. It is usually used to expand the firm's asset base and generate returns on borrowed capital. MTY Food financial leverage is typically calculated by taking the company's all interest-bearing debt and dividing it by total capital. So the higher the debt-to-capital ratio (i.e., financial leverage), the riskier the company. Financial leverage can amplify the potential profits to MTY Food's owners, but it also increases the potential losses and risk of financial distress, including bankruptcy, if the firm cannot cover its debt costs. The degree of MTY Food's financial leverage can be measured in several ways, including by ratios such as the debt-to-equity ratio (total debt / total equity), equity multiplier (total assets / total equity), or the debt ratio (total debt / total assets). Please check the breakdown between MTY Food's total debt and its cash.

MTY Food Gross Profit

MTY Food Gross Profit growth is one of the most critical measures in evaluating the company. The Gross Profit growth rate is calculated simply by comparing MTY Food previous period's values with its current period's values. Each time period you're measuring should be of equal lengths the increase or decrease, in a company's Gross Profit between two periods. Here we show MTY Food Gross Profit growth over the last 10 years. Please check MTY Food's gross profit and other fundamental indicators for more details.

Details

Revenue is income that a firm generates from business activities such us rendering services or selling goods to customers. It is a crucial part of a business and an essential item when evaluating a company's financial statements. Revenues from a firm's primary business operations can be reported on the income statement as sales revenue, net sales, or simply sales, depending on the industry in which a given company operates.
Revenue is typically recorded when cash or cash equivalents are exchanged for services or goods and can include product or services discounts, promotions, as well as early payments on invoices or services rendered in advance.

Revenue Breakdown

Lets now check MTY Food revenue. Based on the latest financial disclosure, MTY Food Group reported 716.52 M of revenue. This is 89.95% lower than that of the Consumer Cyclical sector and 72.25% lower than that of the Restaurants industry. The revenue for all Canada stocks is 92.41% higher than that of the firm. As for Canada Goose we see revenue of 1.22 B, which is 52.86% lower than that of the Restaurants
MTY716.52 Million
Sector2.58 Billion
Canada1.22 Billion
716.5 M
MTY
2.6 B
Sector
1.2 B
Canada
MTY Food Group (TO: MTY), a leading player in the restaurant industry, presents an interesting investment proposition when compared to Canada Goose Holdings. MTY's market capitalization stands at a robust **$1.5 billion**, with a strong operating income of $133.6 million.
The company's net income applicable to common shares is $74.8 million, indicating a healthy profit margin of 0.09%. Despite a high beta of 1.84, suggesting greater volatility, the company's risk-adjusted performance of 0.0261 and total risk alpha of 0.0329 reflect a reasonable risk-return trade-off. MTY's price to earnings ratio is 14.68X, which is reasonable given the industry standards. The company's book value per share is 30.52X, resulting in a price to book ratio of 2.08X. The current ratio, a liquidity indicator, is at 0.64X, which is slightly low, indicating potential short-term liquidity challenges. However, the company's robust cash flow from operations, amounting to $142.8 million, provides some comfort. The company has a significant institutional ownership of 32.12%, which is a positive signal as it often indicates the confidence of sophisticated investors. However, the probability of bankruptcy stands at 39.96%, which may be a concern for potential investors. The company's stock has a 52-week high and low of $73.184 and $48.9226 respectively, with the current price closer to the high, indicating a strong market performance. In conclusion, while MTY Food Group presents some risks, its strong operating performance and reasonable valuation metrics suggest it could be a viable investment option compared to Canada Goose Holdings. .

Momentum Analysis of MTY Food suggests possible reversal in August

The momentum analysis for MTY Food Group suggests a potential reversal in the coming month. The recent Information Ratio, a crucial measure of risk-adjusted return, has experienced a slight increase to 0.02. However, this does not necessarily indicate a positive trend. In fact, it could potentially precede a price decline. Given the current market uncertainty, investors should exercise caution. It would be wise to closely monitor the stock's performance in August for signs of a possible reversal. As of July 10th, MTY Food has secured a Market Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.2921, a mean deviation of 0.9475, and a Risk Adjusted Performance of 0.0261. With regards to fundamental indicators, the technical analysis model allows for the examination of available technical drivers of MTY Food Group, as well as their interrelationships. Strictly speaking, this information can be used to determine if the company will indeed mirror its model of past prices, or if the prices will eventually revert.
We were able to interpolate nineteen technical drivers for MTY Food, which can be compared to its industry peers. Please verify MTY Food Group's information ratio, and the relationship between the downside deviation and value at risk to decide if MTY Food Group is priced favorably, assuming the market reflects its recent price of 61.55 per share. In conclusion, despite a modest market decline, MTY Food Group has shown strong advancement today. The analyst consensus is a 'Buy' with one strong buy recommendation. The valuation real value stands at $30.89, while the naive expected forecast value is at $62.14, indicating a possible upside. The valuation market value is currently at $61.55, slightly below the valuation hype value of $61.57. The possible upside price is $63.37, while the downside could be $60.91. The fiscal year end in November could bring more clarity to the stock's performance. However, investors should note that the analyst's highest estimated target price is a whopping $20.2M, suggesting a significant potential for growth. .

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